I built a short-term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price-forecasting model for two periods to understand how various drivers of crude oil behaved before and after the Great Recession. According to the Federal Reserve the Great Recession "...began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009" (Rich 1). The research involves two models spanning two periods. The first period encompasses 2000 to late 2007 and the second period encompasses early 2010 to 2016. The dependent variable for this model is monthly average WTI crude oil prices. The independent variables are based on what the academic community believes are drivers of crude oil prices. While the studies may be scattered across different time periods, they provide valuable insight on what the academic community believes drives oil prices. The model includes variables that address two different data groups including: 1. Market fundamentals/expectations of market fundamentals 2. Speculation One of the biggest challenges I faced was defining and quantifying "speculation". I ended up using a previous study's definition of "speculation", which it defined as the activity of certain market participants in the Commitment of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. My research shows that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil market exhibited a structural change after the Great Recession. Furthermore, my research also presents interesting findings that warrant further research. For example, I find that 3-month T-bills and 10yr Treasury notes lose their predictive edge starting in the second period (2010-2016). Furthermore, the positive correlation between oil and the U.S. dollar in the period 2000-2007 warrants further investigation. Lastly, it might be interesting to see why T-bills are positively correlated to WTI prices and 10yr Treasury notes are negatively correlated to WTI prices.

Millennial involvement levels in the stock market are startlingly low. But what has caused this disconnect between America's younger generation and the financial sector? Stress from past financial crises, distrust of Wall Street, corporate greed, or a dislike of capitalism could surely all be viable culprits. Through our mutual experiences and research, however, we have found that most millennials aren't cynical anarchists avoiding the stock market in an attempt to fight against the system. Rather, they are individuals who have the desire to learn about investing but are clueless as to where/how to start. We both began investing in the stock market early in our college careers by opening online brokerage accounts and developing investment portfolios based on knowledge we learned within our Finance degrees and through independent research. Word of our involvement in the stock market began to spread in our social circles and people would consistently approach either of us and ask a variety of questions regarding investing. Questions such as: Can you sit down and help me open up an account and pick some stocks? What type of things do you invest in? How do I get started? How much money have you made? (always a favorite). Pre-med students, engineers, business, science, and technology majors alike all showed interest in the stock market. The more and more we talked to people, the more we realized that the problem was not a lack of desire or a lack of intellect. The problem was a lack of logically presented information, and barriers to entry that were far too high. We want to fix that. Investnet will be an online educational platform that will teach anyone the basics of investing, in plain, easy to understand terms. Whether the individual has absolutely zero knowledge of finances, or has some familiarity with investing, Investnet will provide them with the knowledge and confidence necessary to start investing in the stock market (or choose not to, but at least they'll know how).

This research project examines the craft brewing industry and its position in the North American market. Specifically, this research will highlight the most important aspects of the product market, cost structure, market trends, as well as an assessment of the viability of several modes of entry. The data and analysis provided indicates that the industry is promising and poised to grow in comparison to many other sectors within the alcoholic beverages industry, as demand for differentiated craft beer products is relatively strong. The continued existence of craft brewing would not be made possible without the devotion and dedication of individuals simply interested in brewing recipes at home. Although the process of brewing remains relatively traditional, the paper will discuss the possibilities to diversify as a successful craft brewing brand due to consumers' willingness and curiosity to try new beverages. Production details and supply chain processes will be discussed to fully understand the fruitful beginnings of a local brewer to a large scale company that distributes nationwide. Nonetheless, prominent risks include extensive regulatory hurdles ranging from local to federal levels and threats from significant established competitors. These competitors and their business activities will be heavily discussed as it pertains to the question of whether entering the market is a smart business decision. The purpose of this research is to provide potential business owners and investors the strength and knowledge to engage in the craft brewing industry. In essence, the business decision to participate in the craft brewing industry is met with encouragement from an avid consumer base, collaboration with competitors, and an undying passion to brew quality beer for consumption.

This paper seeks to put a spotlight on much that is wrong in the United States with cancer drug development, pricing, marketing and outcomes. Roche Pharmaceutical's cancer drug, Avastin will be used as an example to highlight these issues. Drug patents, Medicare policies, weak metrics of efficacy and ceaseless demand—allow drug manufacturers to price their oncology treatments as they choose, regardless of results, and with virtually no competition, avenue or institution that serves to lower prices in the United States. Avastin will be established as an oncology drug that is overpriced and poorly evaluated based on its effectiveness. Facts, opinions and study analytics will be offered (from industry experts, insiders, doctors and scientists) that in almost all cases show that patients treated with Avastin receive marginal benefit. Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers, reducing conflicts of interest for doctors, setting research & development investment requirements and creating more relevant clinical metrics for use in FDA approvals would help reduce the financial burden on cancer patients and taxpayers.

Childbirth, an essential stage of human life, has been carried out and treated differently in numerous ways throughout time. Although the overall method of birth is biologically the same, women and medical professionals in the United States in particular have changed how they view and manage childbirth over the past 70 years. Some of said changes are extensive and occurred more rapidly than one might typically expect for such a delicate and important stage of a woman‘s, and infant‘s, life. As consumerism, capitalism, and the courts have changed America‘s lifestyles, politics, and society, so too have they drastically affected the way we are conditioned to approach childbirth. More importantly, as society changes over time, the medical field and
methods of specialists also change, and although the benefits of these changes are challenged by some individuals, these procedures and recommendations from professionals inevitably affect us all. Methods and procedures of modern, medicalized childbirth, and even the significance placed on the event, are products of historical and cultural factors influenced by scientific and social trends. However, there exists a small and steadily growing number of women and families who choose to have their birth take place outside of the present societal norm, and consequently outside of hospitals. This group‘s existence and growth has been attributed to several factors, including changes in societal values, differentiation between different financial classes, and the
medicalization of childbirth. Although statistically a small percentage of the majority, these women who choose to give birth outside of a hospital exist amidst an immense ongoing controversy between gynecologists, physicians, mothers, and midwives regarding what options should be available when childbirth is undertaken in the United States.

In this paper the interest yield curve will be plotted at three points based upon three models that were found appropriate for each rate. Knowledge of the term structure of interest yield curves is helpful in the understanding of bond pricing, investment decisions, and public policy (ANG). This paper will examine the intricacies of the yield curve by developing three individual reference rates -a 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year- with the use of financial instruments and multivariate linear regression. Based upon the example of Nelson and Siegel (1987), Black, Derman, and Toy (1990), Mishkin (1990), Ang and Piazzesi (2002) and Diebold et al. (2005) the models will feature various financial assets as well as macroeconomic variables in order to gain an understanding of which factors have the most significant effect on interest rates.

This paper explores the rationale and analysis of a global financial institution and the methodologies used to underwrite a deal between the commercial bank and a middle market client looking to renew existing commercial loans; particularly a real estate term loan, long-term revolving line of credit, guidance line of credit (GLOC), equipment line of credit, and an interest rate swap contract. Typical analysis in the form of risk allowance, collateral due diligence, industry observation, and company-specific financial and operational strength has been performed and the deal has been approved by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Additionally, the frequency of covenant default has been determined by a pro forma income statement simulation based on a combination of both normal and uniform distributions to determine various outcomes for sales and cost of goods sold growth in future years. The results of the simulation are used to determine probability of default on specific financial covenants in the deal to gain a better understanding of the risks associated with the proposed exposure amount and the client's future financial situation.

With many recent events, such as the 2008 Financial Crisis, still under heavy scrutiny from the public, the payment received by executives at some of the major US banking institutions has been at the center of a major debate: are bank executives overpaid? While many people have attempted to answer this question, it is important to look at historical data and determine whether banks tie executive pay to the performance of the firm. The authors gathered historical 10-K data on firm performance at five major banks (Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, US Bancorp, and Wells Fargo), as well as Proxy Statement data on how top-5 executives were being paid at these banks. Correlations between how the firm performed during a given year and what the executive officers of the bank were paid were calculated, to see whether the two subjects correlated with one another. Results were mixed-certain banks drew large correlations between the pay of executives and firm performance, while other banks did not. Interpretation of such data leads to a belief that some banks rely on overall firm performance when setting pay packages for executives, while other banks do not, perhaps using internal measures of performance unknown to the public. Extensive further research could be conducted on this issue to determine what other measures might play a more prominent role when it comes to deciding pay for executives at big banks.

This paper investigates whether measures of investor sentiment can be used to predict future total returns of the S&P 500 index. Rolling regressions and other statistical techniques are used to determine which indicators contain the most predictive information and which time horizons' returns are "easiest" to predict in a three year data set. The five "most predictive" indicators are used to predict 180 calendar day future returns of the market and simulated investment of hypothetical accounts is conducted in an independent six year data set based on the rolling regression future return predictions. Some indicators, most notably the VIX index, appear to contain predictive information which led to out-performance of the accounts that invested based on the rolling regression model's predictions.

The goal of this thesis is to motivate college students to be financially aware and drive them toward attainable financial goals and freedom through budgeting. By providing a foundation of financial knowledge, they can begin to make intelligent decisions about their purchases. After they learn about their current spending habits, students can soundly determine what they have monetarily and then how to allocate that money appropriately. The paper outlines different categories these students should focus on fiscally, like rent and housing as the largest expenses and entertainment expenses as a common pitfall in a college student's budget. Constant financial awareness is reiterated throughout, indicating this is a day-to-day skill to develop. The thesis finally ties up with discussing financing options for college and life in general, with student loans, credit cards, and savings.