Measuring and estimating solar resource availability is critical for assessing new sites for solar energy generation. This includes beam radiation, diffuse radiation, and total incident radiation. Total incident radiation is pertinent to solar photovoltaic (PV) output and low-temperature solar thermal applications whereas beam radiation is used for concentrating solar power (CSP). Global horizontal insolation (GHI) data are most commonly available of any solar radiation measurement, yet these data cannot be directly applied to solar power generator estimation because solar PV panels and solar CSP collectors are not parallel to the earth’s surface. In absence of additional measured data, GHI data may be broken down into its constituent parts—diffuse radiation and beam radiation—using statistical techniques that incorporate explanatory variables such as the clearness index. This study provides a suite of methods and regression models to estimate diffuse radiation as a function of various explanatory variables using both piecewise and continuous fits. Regression analyses using the clearness index are completed for seven locations in the United States and four locations in other regions of the world. The multi-site analysis indicates that models developed using training data for a single location perform best in that location, yet general models can be created that perform reasonably well across any locality and then applied to estimate solar resource availability in new locations around the world. Results from the global and site-specific models perform better than the existing models in literature and indicate that models perform different in different sky conditions e.g. clear or cloudy sky. Results also show that continuous models perform equivalent or better than the piecewise models. Newly generated piecewise models showed improvement over some intervals in the clearness index. A combination of fits from this study and existing literature was used to improve overall performance of modeling techniques used in diffuse radiation estimation. Germany was selected for more detailed studies of a single case study using the clearness index, ambient temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity as explanatory variables. Clearness index is the most important variable for diffuse radiation calculation whereas the relative humidity and the temperature are the secondary variable for improving calculation. Absolute humidity plays similar role as temperature in improving the calculation on the other hand relative humidity improves it very slightly over the absolute humidity and temperature.

In the past 10 to 15 years, there has been a tremendous increase in the amount of photovoltaic (PV) modules being both manufactured and installed in the field. Power plants in the hundreds of megawatts are continuously being turned online as the world turns toward greener and sustainable energy. Due to this fact and to calculate LCOE (levelized cost of energy), it is understandably becoming more important to comprehend the behavior of these systems as a whole by calculating two key data: the rate at which modules are degrading in the field; the trend (linear or nonlinear) in which the degradation is occurring. As opposed to periodical in field intrusive current-voltage (I-V) measurements, non-intrusive measurements are preferable to obtain these two key data since owners do not want to lose money by turning their systems off, as well as safety and breach of installer warranty terms. In order to understand the degradation behavior of PV systems, there is a need for highly accurate performance modeling. In this thesis 39 commercial PV power plants from the hot-dry climate of Arizona are analyzed to develop an understanding on the rate and trend of degradation seen by crystalline silicon PV modules. A total of three degradation rates were calculated for each power plant based on three methods: Performance Ratio (PR), Performance Index (PI), and raw kilowatt-hour. These methods were validated from in field I-V measurements obtained by Arizona State University Photovoltaic Reliability Lab (ASU-PRL). With the use of highly accurate performance models, the generated degradation rates may be used by the system owners to claim a warranty from PV module manufactures or other responsible parties.

Photovoltaic (PV) module degradation is a well-known issue, however understanding the mechanistic pathways in which modules degrade is still a major task for the PV industry. In order to study the mechanisms responsible for PV module degradation, the effects of these degradation mechanisms must be quantitatively measured to determine the severity of each degradation mode. In this thesis multiple modules from three climate zones (Arizona, California and Colorado) were investigated for a single module glass/polymer construction (Siemens M55) to determine the degree to which they had degraded, and the main factors that contributed to that degradation. To explain the loss in power, various nondestructive and destructive techniques were used to indicate possible causes of loss in performance. This is a two-part thesis. Part 1 presents non-destructive test results and analysis and Part 2 presents destructive test results and analysis.

This is a two-part thesis.

Part 1 of this thesis investigates the influence of spatial temperature distribution on the accuracy of performance data of photovoltaic (PV) modules in outdoor conditions and provides physical approaches to improve the spatial temperature distribution of the test modules so an accurate performance data can be obtained in the field. Conventionally, during outdoor performance testing, a single thermocouple location is used on the backsheet or back glass of a test module. This study clearly indicates that there is a large spatial temperature difference between various thermocouple locations within a module. Two physical approaches or configurations were experimented to improve the spatial temperature uniformity: thermally insulating the inner and outer surface of the frame; backsheet and inner surface of the frame. All the data were compared with un-insulated conventional configuration. This study was performed in an array setup of six modules under two different preconditioning electrical configurations, Voc and MPPT over several clear sunny days. This investigation concludes that the best temperature uniformity and the most accurate I-V data can be obtained only by thermally insulating the inner and outer frame surfaces or by using the average of four thermocouple temperatures, as specified in IEC 61853-2, without any thermal insulation.

Part 2 of this thesis analyzes the field data obtained from old PV power plants using various statistical techniques to identify the most influential degradation modes on fielded PV modules in two different climates: hot-dry (Arizona); cold-dry (New York). Performance data and visual inspection data of 647 modules fielded in five different power plants were analyzed. Statistical tests including hypothesis testing were carried out to identify the I-V parameter(s) that are affected the most. The affected performance parameters (Isc, Voc, FF and Pmax) were then correlated with the defects to determine the most dominant defect affecting power degradation. Analysis indicates that the cell interconnect discoloration (or solder bond deterioration) is the dominant defect in hot-dry climate leading to series resistance increase and power loss, while encapsulant delamination is being the most dominant defect in cold-dry climate leading to cell mismatch and power loss.

This is a two-part thesis.

Part 1 presents an approach for working towards the development of a standardized artificial soiling method for laminated photovoltaic (PV) cells or mini-modules. Construction of an artificial chamber to maintain controlled environmental conditions and components/chemicals used in artificial soil formulation is briefly explained. Both poly-Si mini-modules and a single cell mono-Si coupons were soiled and characterization tests such as I-V, reflectance and quantum efficiency (QE) were carried out on both soiled, and cleaned coupons. From the results obtained, poly-Si mini-modules proved to be a good measure of soil uniformity, as any non-uniformity present would not result in a smooth curve during I-V measurements. The challenges faced while executing reflectance and QE characterization tests on poly-Si due to smaller size cells was eliminated on the mono-Si coupons with large cells to obtain highly repeatable measurements. This study indicates that the reflectance measurements between 600-700 nm wavelengths can be used as a direct measure of soil density on the modules.

Part 2 determines the most dominant failure modes of field aged PV modules using experimental data obtained in the field and statistical analysis, FMECA (Failure Mode, Effect, and Criticality Analysis). The failure and degradation modes of about 744 poly-Si glass/polymer frameless modules fielded for 18 years under the cold-dry climate of New York was evaluated. Defect chart, degradation rates (both string and module levels) and safety map were generated using the field measured data. A statistical reliability tool, FMECA that uses Risk Priority Number (RPN) is used to determine the dominant failure or degradation modes in the strings and modules by means of ranking and prioritizing the modes. This study on PV power plants considers all the failure and degradation modes from both safety and performance perspectives.

The indoor and outdoor soiling studies were jointly performed by two Masters Students, Sravanthi Boppana and Vidyashree Rajasekar. This thesis presents the indoor soiling study, whereas the other thesis presents the outdoor soiling study. Similarly, the statistical risk analyses of two power plants (model J and model JVA) were jointly performed by these two Masters students. Both power plants are located at the same cold-dry climate, but one power plant carries framed modules and the other carries frameless modules. This thesis presents the results obtained on the frameless modules.

This is a two-part thesis:

Part 1 characterizes soiling losses using various techniques to understand the effect of soiling on photovoltaic modules. The higher the angle of incidence (AOI), the lower will be the photovoltaic (PV) module performance. Our research group has already reported the AOI investigation for cleaned modules of five different technologies with air/glass interface. However, the modules that are installed in the field would invariably develop a soil layer with varying thickness depending on the site condition, rainfall and tilt angle. The soiled module will have the air/soil/glass interface rather than air/glass interface. This study investigates the AOI variations on soiled modules of five different PV technologies. It is demonstrated that AOI effect is inversely proportional to the soil density. In other words, the power or current loss between clean and soiled modules would be much higher at a higher AOI than at a lower AOI leading to excessive energy production loss of soiled modules on cloudy days, early morning hours and late afternoon hours. Similarly, the spectral influence of soil on the performance of the module was investigated through reflectance and transmittance measurements. It was observed that the reflectance and transmittances losses vary linearly with soil density variation and the 600-700 nm band was identified as an ideal band for soil density measurements.

Part 2 of this thesis performs statistical risk analysis for a power plant through FMECA (Failure Mode, Effect, and Criticality Analysis) based on non-destructive field techniques and count data of the failure modes. Risk Priority Number is used for the grading guideline for criticality analysis. The analysis was done on a 19-year-old power plant in cold-dry climate to identify the most dominant failure and degradation modes. In addition, a comparison study was done on the current power plant (framed) along with another 18-year-old (frameless) from the same climate zone to understand the failure modes for cold-dry climatic condition.

The main objective of this research is to develop an approach to PV module lifetime prediction. In doing so, the aim is to move from empirical generalizations to a formal predictive science based on data-driven case studies of the crystalline silicon PV systems. The evaluation of PV systems aged 5 to 30 years old that results in systematic predictive capability that is absent today. The warranty period provided by the manufacturers typically range from 20 to 25 years for crystalline silicon modules. The end of lifetime (for example, the time-to-degrade by 20% from rated power) of PV modules is usually calculated using a simple linear extrapolation based on the annual field degradation rate (say, 0.8% drop in power output per year). It has been 26 years since systematic studies on solar PV module lifetime prediction were undertaken as part of the 11-year flat-plate solar array (FSA) project of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) funded by DOE. Since then, PV modules have gone through significant changes in construction materials and design; making most of the field data obsolete, though the effect field stressors on the old designs/materials is valuable to be understood. Efforts have been made to adapt some of the techniques developed to the current technologies, but they are too often limited in scope and too reliant on empirical generalizations of previous results. Some systematic approaches have been proposed based on accelerated testing, but no or little experimental studies have followed. Consequently, the industry does not exactly know today how to test modules for a 20 - 30 years lifetime.

This research study focuses on the behavior of crystalline silicon PV module technology in the dry and hot climatic condition of Tempe/Phoenix, Arizona. A three-phase approach was developed: (1) A quantitative failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) was developed for prioritizing failure modes or mechanisms in a given environment; (2) A time-series approach was used to model environmental stress variables involved and prioritize their effect on the power output drop; and (3) A procedure for developing a prediction model was proposed for the climatic specific condition based on accelerated degradation testing

To increase the deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems, a higher level of performance for PV modules should be sought. Soiling, or dust accumulation on the PV modules, is one of the conditions that negatively affect the performance of the PV modules by reducing the light incident onto the surface of the PV module. This thesis presents two studies that focus on investigating the soiling effect on the performance of the PV modules installed in Metro Phoenix area.

The first study was conducted to investigate the optimum cleaning frequency for cleaning PV modules installed in Mesa, AZ. By monitoring the soiling loss of PV modules mounted on a mock rooftop at ASU-PRL, a detailed soiling modeling was obtained. Same setup was also used for other soiling-related investigations like studying the effect of soiling density on angle of incidence (AOI) dependence, the climatological relevance (CR) to soiling, and spatial variation of the soiling loss. During the first dry season (May to June), the daily soiling rate was found as -0.061% for 20o tilted modules. Based on the obtained soiling rate, cleaning PV modules, when the soiling is just due to dust on 20o tilted residential arrays, was found economically not justifiable.

The second study focuses on evaluating the soiling loss in different locations of Metro Phoenix area of Arizona. The main goal behind the second study was to validate the daily soiling rate obtained from the mock rooftop setup in the first part of this thesis. By collaborating with local solar panel cleaning companies, soiling data for six residential systems in 5 different cities in and around Phoenix was collected, processed, and analyzed. The range of daily soiling rate in the Phoenix area was found as -0.057% to -0.085% for 13-28o tilted arrays. The soiling rate found in the first part of the thesis (-0.061%) for 20o tilted array, was validated since it falls within the range obtained from the second part of the thesis.

This is a two-part thesis: Part 1 of this thesis tests and validates the methodology and mathematical models of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61853-2 standard for the measurement of angle of incidence (AOI) effects on photovoltaic modules. Flat-plate photovoltaic modules in the field operate under a wide range of environmental conditions. The purpose of IEC 61853-2 is to characterize photovoltaic modules' performance under specific environmental conditions. Part 1 of this report focuses specifically on AOI. To accurately test and validate IEC 61853-2 standard for measuring AOI, meticulous experimental setup and test procedures were followed. Modules of five different photovoltaic technology types with glass superstrates were tested. Test results show practically identical relative light transmission plots for all five test modules. The experimental results were compared to theoretical and empirical models for relative light transmission of air-glass interface. IEC 61853-2 states "for the flat glass superstrate modules, the AOI test does not need to be performed; rather, the data of a flat glass air interface can be used." The results obtained in this thesis validate this statement. This work was performed in collaboration with another Master of Science student (Surynarayana Janakeeraman) and the test results are presented in two masters theses. Part 2 of this thesis is to develop non-intrusive techniques to accurately measure the quantum efficiency (QE) of a single-junction crystalline silicon cell within a commercial module. This thesis will describe in detail all the equipment and conditions necessary to measure QE and discuss the factors which may influence this measurement. The ability to utilize a non-intrusive test to measure quantum efficiency of a cell within a module is extremely beneficial for reliability testing of commercial modules. Detailed methodologies for this innovative test procedure are not widely available in industry because equipment and measurement techniques have not been explored extensively. This paper will provide a literature review describing relevant theories and measurement techniques related to measuring the QE of a cell within a module. The testing methodology and necessary equipment will be described in detail. Results and conclusions provide the overall accuracy of the measurements and discuss the parameters affecting these measurements.