The current Enterprise Requirements and Acquisition Model (ERAM), a discrete event simulation of the major tasks and decisions within the DoD acquisition system, identifies several what-if intervention strategies to improve program completion time. However, processes that contribute to the program acquisition completion time were not explicitly identified in the simulation study. This research seeks to determine the acquisition processes that contribute significantly to total simulated program time in the acquisition system for all programs reaching Milestone C. Specifically, this research examines the effect of increased scope management, technology maturity, and decreased variation and mean process times in post-Design Readiness Review contractor activities by performing additional simulation analyses. Potential policies are formulated from the results to further improve program acquisition completion time.

The challenge of healthcare delivery has attracted widespread attention since the report published by the World Health Organization in 2000, ranking the US 37th in overall health systems performance among 191 Member States. In addition, Davis et al. (2007) demonstrated that healthcare costs in the US were higher than all other countries, despite the fact that care was not the better than all other countries. The growing population in the US, combined with continued medical advances, has increased the demand for quality healthcare services. With this growth, however, comes the challenge of managing rising costs and maintaining efficient operations while satisfying patient's service level. Research has explored methods of improvement from system engineering, lean and process improvement, and mathematical programming of healthcare operations, to improve healthcare operations. In this project, we are interested in a patient access (patient registration) problem. The key research question is: what is an optimal decision in terms of patient admitting points considering both hospital cost and service level of patient access? To answer this question, we propose the use of the Queueing Theory to evaluate scenarios in a multi-objective decision setting implemented by Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Application). The first objective is to provide a "generic" Excel-based model with user-friendly interface such that users are able to visualize outcomes by changing chosen parameters and understand model sensitivities. The second objective is to evaluate the use Queueing in this patient access staffing decision. The data was provided by Healthcare Excellence Institute (HEI), a Phoenix-based consulting company which has experience in improving healthcare operation for more than 8 years. HEI has several hospital clients interested in determining the "optimal" number of admitting points which motivates us to develop this research project. Please note due to business confidentiality, the date used in this thesis has been modified.

The Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition system is a complex system riddled with cost and schedule overruns. These cost and schedule overruns are very serious issues as the acquisition system is responsible for aiding U.S. warfighters. Hence, if the acquisition process is failing that could be a potential threat to our nation's security. Furthermore, the DoD acquisition system is responsible for proper allocation of billions of taxpayer's dollars and employs many civilians and military personnel. Much research has been done in the past on the acquisition system with little impact or success. One reason for this lack of success in improving the system is the lack of accurate models to test theories. This research is a continuation of the effort on the Enterprise Requirements and Acquisition Model (ERAM), a discrete event simulation modeling research on DoD acquisition system. We propose to extend ERAM using agent-based simulation principles due to the many interactions among the subsystems of the acquisition system. We initially identify ten sub models needed to simulate the acquisition system. This research focuses on three sub models related to the budget of acquisition programs. In this thesis, we present the data collection, data analysis, initial implementation, and initial validation needed to facilitate these sub models and lay the groundwork for a full agent-based simulation of the DoD acquisition system.

The following is a case study composed of three workflow investigations at the open source software development (OSSD) based Apache Software Foundation (Apache). I start with an examination of the workload inequality within the Apache, particularly with regard to requirements writing. I established that the stronger a participant's experience indicators are, the more likely they are to propose a requirement that is not a defect and the more likely the requirement is eventually implemented. Requirements at Apache are divided into work tickets (tickets). In our second investigation, I reported many insights into the distribution patterns of these tickets. The participants that create the tickets often had the best track records for determining who should participate in that ticket. Tickets that were at one point volunteered for (self-assigned) had a lower incident of neglect but in some cases were also associated with severe delay. When a participant claims a ticket but postpones the work involved, these tickets exist without a solution for five to ten times as long, depending on the circumstances. I make recommendations that may reduce the incidence of tickets that are claimed but not implemented in a timely manner. After giving an in-depth explanation of how I obtained this data set through web crawlers, I describe the pattern mining platform I developed to make my data mining efforts highly scalable and repeatable. Lastly, I used process mining techniques to show that workflow patterns vary greatly within teams at Apache. I investigated a variety of process choices and how they might be influencing the outcomes of OSSD projects. I report a moderately negative association between how often a team updates the specifics of a requirement and how often requirements are completed. I also verified that the prevalence of volunteerism indicators is positively associated with work completion but what was surprising is that this correlation is stronger if I exclude the very large projects. I suggest the largest projects at Apache may benefit from some level of traditional delegation in addition to the phenomenon of volunteerism that OSSD is normally associated with.

Distributed Renewable energy generators are now contributing a significant amount of energy into the energy grid. Consequently, reliability adequacy of such energy generators will depend on making accurate forecasts of energy produced by them. Power outputs of Solar PV systems depend on the stochastic variation of environmental factors (solar irradiance, ambient temperature & wind speed) and random mechanical failures/repairs. Monte Carlo Simulation which is typically used to model such problems becomes too computationally intensive leading to simplifying state-space assumptions. Multi-state models for power system reliability offer a higher flexibility in providing a description of system state evolution and an accurate representation of probability. In this study, Universal Generating Functions (UGF) were used to solve such combinatorial problems. 8 grid connected Solar PV systems were analyzed with a combined capacity of about 5MW located in a hot-dry climate (Arizona) and accuracy of 98% was achieved when validated with real-time data. An analytics framework is provided to grid operators and utilities to effectively forecast energy produced by distributed energy assets and in turn, develop strategies for effective Demand Response in times of increased share of renewable distributed energy assets in the grid. Second part of this thesis extends the environmental modelling approach to develop an aging test to be run in conjunction with an accelerated test of Solar PV modules. Accelerated Lifetime Testing procedures in the industry are used to determine the dominant failure modes which the product undergoes in the field, as well as predict the lifetime of the product. UV stressor is one of the ten stressors which a PV module undergoes in the field. UV exposure causes browning of modules leading to drop in Short Circuit Current. This thesis presents an environmental modelling approach for the hot-dry climate and extends it to develop an aging test methodology. This along with the accelerated tests would help achieve the goal of correlating field failures with accelerated tests and obtain acceleration factor. This knowledge would help predict PV module degradation in the field within 30% of the actual value and help in knowing the PV module lifetime accurately.

Background: Genetic profiling represents the future of neuro-oncology but suffers from inadequate biopsies in heterogeneous tumors like Glioblastoma (GBM). Contrast-enhanced MRI (CE-MRI) targets enhancing core (ENH) but yields adequate tumor in only ~60% of cases. Further, CE-MRI poorly localizes infiltrative tumor within surrounding non-enhancing parenchyma, or brain-around-tumor (BAT), despite the importance of characterizing this tumor segment, which universally recurs. In this study, we use multiple texture analysis and machine learning (ML) algorithms to analyze multi-parametric MRI, and produce new images indicating tumor-rich targets in GBM.

Methods: We recruited primary GBM patients undergoing image-guided biopsies and acquired pre-operative MRI: CE-MRI, Dynamic-Susceptibility-weighted-Contrast-enhanced-MRI, and Diffusion Tensor Imaging. Following image coregistration and region of interest placement at biopsy locations, we compared MRI metrics and regional texture with histologic diagnoses of high- vs low-tumor content (≥80% vs <80% tumor nuclei) for corresponding samples. In a training set, we used three texture analysis algorithms and three ML methods to identify MRI-texture features that optimized model accuracy to distinguish tumor content. We confirmed model accuracy in a separate validation set.

Results: We collected 82 biopsies from 18 GBMs throughout ENH and BAT. The MRI-based model achieved 85% cross-validated accuracy to diagnose high- vs low-tumor in the training set (60 biopsies, 11 patients). The model achieved 81.8% accuracy in the validation set (22 biopsies, 7 patients).

Conclusion: Multi-parametric MRI and texture analysis can help characterize and visualize GBM’s spatial histologic heterogeneity to identify regional tumor-rich biopsy targets.

Resource allocation in cloud computing determines the allocation of computer and network resources of service providers to service requests of cloud users for meeting the cloud users' service requirements. The efficient and effective resource allocation determines the success of cloud computing. However, it is challenging to satisfy objectives of all service providers and all cloud users in an unpredictable environment with dynamic workload, large shared resources and complex policies to manage them.

Many studies propose to use centralized algorithms for achieving optimal solutions for resource allocation. However, the centralized algorithms may encounter the scalability problem to handle a large number of service requests in a realistically satisfactory time. Hence, this dissertation presents two studies. One study develops and tests heuristics of centralized resource allocation to produce near-optimal solutions in a scalable manner. Another study looks into decentralized methods of performing resource allocation.

The first part of this dissertation defines the resource allocation problem as a centralized optimization problem in Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) and obtains the optimal solutions for various resource-service problem scenarios. Based on the analysis of the optimal solutions, various heuristics are designed for efficient resource allocation. Extended experiments are conducted with larger numbers of user requests and service providers for performance evaluation of the resource allocation heuristics. Experimental results of the resource allocation heuristics show the comparable performance of the heuristics to the optimal solutions from solving the optimization problem. Moreover, the resource allocation heuristics demonstrate better computational efficiency and thus scalability than solving the optimization problem.

The second part of this dissertation looks into elements of service provider-user coordination first in the formulation of the centralized resource allocation problem in MIP and then in the formulation of the optimization problem in a decentralized manner for various problem cases. By examining differences between the centralized, optimal solutions and the decentralized solutions for those problem cases, the analysis of how the decentralized service provider-user coordination breaks down the optimal solutions is performed. Based on the analysis, strategies of decentralized service provider-user coordination are developed.

This dissertation carries out an inter-disciplinary research of operations research, statistics, power system engineering, and economics. Specifically, this dissertation focuses on a special power system scheduling problem, a unit commitment problem with uncertainty. This scheduling problem is a two-stage decision problem. In the first stage, system operator determines the binary commitment status (on or off) of generators in advance. In the second stage, after the realization of uncertainty, the system operator determines generation levels of the generators. The goal of this dissertation is to develop computationally-tractable methodologies and algorithms to solve large-scale unit commitment problems with uncertainty.

In the first part of this dissertation, two-stage models are studied to solve the problem. Two solution methods are studied and improved: stochastic programming and robust optimization. A scenario-based progressive hedging decomposition algorithm is applied. Several new hedging mechanisms and parameter selections rules are proposed and tested. A data-driven uncertainty set is proposed to improve the performance of robust optimization.

In the second part of this dissertation, a framework to reduce the two-stage stochastic program to a single-stage deterministic formulation is proposed. Most computation of the proposed approach can be done by offline studies. With the assistance of offline analysis, simulation, and data mining, the unit commitment problems with uncertainty can be solved efficiently.

Finally, the impacts of uncertainty on energy market prices are studied. A new component of locational marginal price, a marginal security component, which is the weighted shadow prices of the proposed security constraints, is proposed to better represent energy prices.

Anomaly is a deviation from the normal behavior of the system and anomaly detection techniques try to identify unusual instances based on deviation from the normal data. In this work, I propose a machine-learning algorithm, referred to as Artificial Contrasts, for anomaly detection in categorical data in which neither the dimension, the specific attributes involved, nor the form of the pattern is known a priori. I use RandomForest (RF) technique as an effective learner for artificial contrast. RF is a powerful algorithm that can handle relations of attributes in high dimensional data and detect anomalies while providing probability estimates for risk decisions.

I apply the model to two simulated data sets and one real data set. The model was able to detect anomalies with a very high accuracy. Finally, by comparing the proposed model with other models in the literature, I demonstrate superior performance of the proposed model.

Buildings consume nearly 50% of the total energy in the United States, which drives the need to develop high-fidelity models for building energy systems. Extensive methods and techniques have been developed, studied, and applied to building energy simulation and forecasting, while most of work have focused on developing dedicated modeling approach for generic buildings. In this study, an integrated computationally efficient and high-fidelity building energy modeling framework is proposed, with the concentration on developing a generalized modeling approach for various types of buildings. First, a number of data-driven simulation models are reviewed and assessed on various types of computationally expensive simulation problems. Motivated by the conclusion that no model outperforms others if amortized over diverse problems, a meta-learning based recommendation system for data-driven simulation modeling is proposed. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework on the building energy system, an extended application of the recommendation system for short-term building energy forecasting is deployed on various buildings. Finally, Kalman filter-based data fusion technique is incorporated into the building recommendation system for on-line energy forecasting. Data fusion enables model calibration to update the state estimation in real-time, which filters out the noise and renders more accurate energy forecast. The framework is composed of two modules: off-line model recommendation module and on-line model calibration module. Specifically, the off-line model recommendation module includes 6 widely used data-driven simulation models, which are ranked by meta-learning recommendation system for off-line energy modeling on a given building scenario. Only a selective set of building physical and operational characteristic features is needed to complete the recommendation task. The on-line calibration module effectively addresses system uncertainties, where data fusion on off-line model is applied based on system identification and Kalman filtering methods. The developed data-driven modeling framework is validated on various genres of buildings, and the experimental results demonstrate desired performance on building energy forecasting in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. The framework could be easily implemented into building energy model predictive control (MPC), demand response (DR) analysis and real-time operation decision support systems.