Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Future Earnings Response on Stock Price Information Content in the Stock Connect Program

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Description
The Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect program is a globally unique institutional innovation. This partially open financial system is unparalleled worldwide. As the influence of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect on A-shares has grown, the volume of research literature has gradually

The Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect program is a globally unique institutional innovation. This partially open financial system is unparalleled worldwide. As the influence of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect on A-shares has grown, the volume of research literature has gradually increased, and studies on the policy impact from various sectors have become prevalent. Prior to the introduction of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, studies indicated that A-share stock prices did not significantly react to stock information, indicating low informational content in stock prices. The Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, through its moderate openness, has effectively introduced mature overseas investment philosophies and international capital, altering the investor structure of A-shares and impacting trading behavior. This paper aims to explore whether the initiation of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy positively affects the informational content of A-share stock prices under the aforementioned premises. To minimize the interference of short-term market fluctuations on the research, this paper uses the relatively long-term future earnings response as the entry point for studying the informational content of stock prices. Specifically, it first selects a full sample of Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks to conduct annual cross-sectional regression and multi-year linear regression to examine changes in the informational content of stock prices before and after policy implementation. It then includes a control group of stocks not selected for the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, conducting multi-year linear regression analysis with the experimental group samples to investigate whether the policy initiation has improved the informational content of stock prices for Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks compared to those not selected. The results show that after the initiation of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy, the informational content of stock prices increased for Shanghai Stock Connect but decreased for Shenzhen Stock Connect. Compared to stocks not selected for the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the informational content of stock prices also increased for Shanghai Stock Connect and decreased for Shenzhen Stock Connect. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy has indeed achieved its initial policy design goals, warranting further exploration into deepening openness to optimize the structure of the capital market.
Date Created
2024
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商办类公寓产品价格影响因素及购买群体分析——以无锡地区为例

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Description
随着商品房住宅市场调控政策大幅收紧,商办类公寓市场成为住房自住需求和投资需求共同关注对象,这有力地促进了商办类公寓市场发展。然而在公寓市场快速发展过程中也暴露出一些问题,比较突出的表现有:商办类公寓价格影响因素不明确使得公寓定价和高溢价产品开发方面缺乏科学决策依据;政府政策不稳定,公寓市场发展前景不明确,地方政府表现的态度各不相同,支持的地方政府允许个人购买公寓并享受学区资格,不支持的地方政府要求公寓只能售给单位。这些表现反映出商办类公寓市场发展过程中调控政策和运营策略亟待完善。本文以商办类公寓为研究对象,从宏观视角对商办类公寓价格影响因素进行分析,以及从微观视角对商办类公寓需求群体分析,从而为商办类公寓市场调控政策和公寓产品开发商运营策略建言献策。本文首先对影响房地产价格因素、客户群体分类分析和政府出台的商办类公寓政策进行了文献综述;其次对商办类公寓相关概念进行界定,梳理有关理论知识从而为后续分析奠定理论与方法基础;然后以无锡地区为例,从政策、运营和需求三个维度确定影响商办类公寓产品销售价格因素,构建商办类公寓价格回归模型并进行调整与分析,使用时序数据分析了无锡主要调控政策对于价格增长率的影响;进一步聚焦商办类购房群体,以无锡市某商办类公寓项目购房群体为样本运用二元Logit回归分析对该群体进行不同角度的分析;最后,针对商办类公寓市场现行调控政策进行反思并给出政策建议,针对采用“集中收购-整合-销售-租赁”模式的公寓产品开发商给出运营策略建议。 本研究成果能够为公寓开发商在收购商办类资产、目标客户营销方面提供指导意见。这有助于提高公寓运营商盈利能力、降低重资产投资风险,促进公寓市场的长足发展;能够指明公寓购房需求群体特点,该如何区分对待,从而为政府决策者出台更合理、灵活的公寓市场规范化政策提供参考建议,而不是通过简单“一刀切”式的行政手段去干预。
Date Created
2021
Agent

公募基金产品在上市公司现金管理选择中的发展研究

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Description
企业作为社会经营活动的重要主体,其日常经营管理及决策行为有很大研究价值。上市公司作为各行业优质企业的龙头,其行为决策更值得人们关注和研究。而在企业财务管理中的现金管理事宜上,包括很多上市公司在内的企业决策及行为仍然非常传统。长久以来,企业现金管理等财务管理相关的理财行为并未受到商界和学界的足够重视,以上市公司为代表的优质企业,到底如何开展合适的现金管理成为现实问题。而在当下中国可供企业实际选择进行现金管理的金融产品中,除了传统的存款产品和银行理财之外,实际上以货币市场基金为代表的公募基金产品也是上市公司等企业进行现金管理非常合适的选择。

以货币市场基金为代表的公募基金具有许多特色及优势,其各项交易及持有成本较低,由基金管理公司中专业的基金经理进行投资组合,有利于分散投资,降低风险。同时,货币市场基金等固定收益类的开放式公募基金产品流动性佳,风险较低,交易方便,收益可观。此外,企业投资公募基金产品的收益全额免征企业所得税。所以企业在现金管理中选择货币市场基金等固定收益类的开放式公募基金,既可以进行资产的保值增值,还可以进行合理税收筹划,是众多企业进行现金管理的良好方案之一。本文就将试图研究中国市场中的货币市场基金等公募基金产品在上市企业现金管理选择中的发展演变。

本文以货币市场基金等公募基金产品和中国A股上市公司为主体,分析相关基金产品在中国上市公司现金管理中是如何发展演变的,具有理论创新意义和实际意义。本研究可以为上市公司的现金管理行为决策提供一定帮助,也可以为基金产品的管理人及代销机构提供不同的路径选择参考,获得差异市场竞争优势,提升公司和行业价值

关键词: 公募基金、货币市场基金、企业理财、上市公司、现金管理
Date Created
2020
Agent

The Impacts of Margin Trading on Rate of Return and Volatility in the Stock Market: A Study using the SVAR Model and Panel Regressions

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Description
Although margin trading has significant impacts on the stock market, extant research has mainly focused on its effect on stock price volatility and has rarely examined its influence on the rate of returns. In addition, little systematic research has examined

Although margin trading has significant impacts on the stock market, extant research has mainly focused on its effect on stock price volatility and has rarely examined its influence on the rate of returns. In addition, little systematic research has examined the differential effects of margin trading under different circumstances. This thesis examines the effects of margin trading in bull market, bear market, balanced market and among stocks included in main board, SMEs(small and medium-sized enterprises) board, GEM(growth enterprises board), as well as large-cap and small-cap in China. I further studied the long-, medium-, and short-term influences of margin trading on the volatility of stock price, return rate, and liquidity of the market by both using the SVAR model and conducting panel data analyses.

The findings show that: a)Volatility. Margin trading can effectively curtail the medium- and short-term volatility of the share price under any market condition but has no prominent influence on long-term volatility. b)Profitability. Margin trading enhances profitability in the bull market with an apparent leverage effect while having no significant effects on short-term profitability in the balanced market and the bear market. c) Individual shares with different attributes. The influences of margin trading on the large-cap and small-cap shares, shares with high vs. low PE ratio, shares included in the main board and SMEs stocks vary in different types of market. d) Liquidity. The influences of margin trading on the fluidity of market are significantly different in the bull, bear, and balanced markets.

Finally, I set up a new trading strategy based on the above conclusions. The result from hypothetical trading demonstrates that the newly-created trading strategy works better than the long-term holding strategy, highlighting the practical implications of this thesis in addition to its implications for research
Date Created
2018
Agent