Avian influenzas are zoonoses, or pathogens borne by wildlife and livestock that

can also infect people. In recent decades, and especially since the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in 1996, these diseases have become a significant threat to animal and public health across the world. HPAI H5N1 has caused severe damage to poultry populations, killing, or prompting the culling of, millions of birds in Asia, Africa, and Europe. It has also infected hundreds of people, with a mortality rate of approximately 50%. This dissertation focuses on the ecological and socioeconomic drivers of avian influenza risk, particularly in China, the most populous country to be infected. Among the most significant ecological risk factors are landscapes that serve as “mixing zones” for wild waterfowl and poultry, such as rice paddy, and nearby lakes and wetlands that are important breeding and wintering habitats for wild birds. Poultry outbreaks often involve cross infections between wild and domesticated birds. At the international level, trade in live poultry can spread the disease, especially if the imports are from countries not party to trade agreements with well-developed biosecurity standards. However, these risks can be mitigated in a number of ways. Protected habitats, such as Ramsar wetlands, can segregate wild bird and poultry populations, thereby lowering the chance of interspecies transmission. The industrialization of poultry production, while not without ethical and public health problems, can also be risk-reducing by causing wild-domestic segregation and allowing for the more efficient application of surveillance, vaccination, and other biosecurity measures. Disease surveillance is effective at preventing the spread of avian influenza, including across international borders. Economic modernization in general, as reflected in rising per-capita GDP, appears to mitigate avian influenza risks at both the national and sub-national levels. Poultry vaccination has been effective in many cases, but is an incomplete solution because of the practical difficulties of sustained and widespread implementation. The other popular approach to avian influenza control is culling, which can be highly expensive and raise ethical concerns about large-scale animal slaughter. Therefore, it is more economically efficient, and may even be more ethical, to target the socio-ecological drivers of avian influenza risks, including by implementing the policies discussed here.

The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.

Ionizing radiation used in the patient diagnosis or therapy has negative effects on the patient body in short term and long term depending on the amount of exposure. More than 700,000 examinations are everyday performed on Interventional Radiology modalities [1], however; there is no patient-centric information available to the patient or the Quality Assurance for the amount of organ dose received. In this study, we are exploring the methodologies to systematically reduce the absorbed radiation dose in the Fluoroscopically Guided Interventional Radiology procedures. In the first part of this study, we developed a mathematical model which determines a set of geometry settings for the equipment and a level for the energy during a patient exam. The goal is to minimize the amount of absorbed dose in the critical organs while maintaining image quality required for the diagnosis. The model is a large-scale mixed integer program. We performed polyhedral analysis and derived several sets of strong inequalities to improve the computational speed and quality of the solution. Results present the amount of absorbed dose in the critical organ can be reduced up to 99% for a specific set of angles. In the second part, we apply an approximate gradient method to simultaneously optimize angle and table location while minimizing dose in the critical organs with respect to the image quality. In each iteration, we solve a sub-problem as a MIP to determine the radiation field size and corresponding X-ray tube energy. In the computational experiments, results show further reduction (up to 80%) of the absorbed dose in compare with previous method. Last, there are uncertainties in the medical procedures resulting imprecision of the absorbed dose. We propose a robust formulation to hedge from the worst case absorbed dose while ensuring feasibility. In this part, we investigate a robust approach for the organ motions within a radiology procedure. We minimize the absorbed dose for the critical organs across all input data scenarios which are corresponding to the positioning and size of the organs. The computational results indicate up to 26% increase in the absorbed dose calculated for the robust approach which ensures the feasibility across scenarios.

With the increase in computing power and availability of data, there has never been a greater need to understand data and make decisions from it. Traditional statistical techniques may not be adequate to handle the size of today's data or the complexities of the information hidden within the data. Thus knowledge discovery by machine learning techniques is necessary if we want to better understand information from data. In this dissertation, we explore the topics of asymmetric loss and asymmetric data in machine learning and propose new algorithms as solutions to some of the problems in these topics. We also studied variable selection of matched data sets and proposed a solution when there is non-linearity in the matched data. The research is divided into three parts. The first part addresses the problem of asymmetric loss. A proposed asymmetric support vector machine (aSVM) is used to predict specific classes with high accuracy. aSVM was shown to produce higher precision than a regular SVM. The second part addresses asymmetric data sets where variables are only predictive for a subset of the predictor classes. Asymmetric Random Forest (ARF) was proposed to detect these kinds of variables. The third part explores variable selection for matched data sets. Matched Random Forest (MRF) was proposed to find variables that are able to distinguish case and control without the restrictions that exists in linear models. MRF detects variables that are able to distinguish case and control even in the presence of interaction and qualitative variables.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia observed in elderly patients and has significant social-economic impact. There are many initiatives which aim to capture leading causes of AD. Several genetic, imaging, and biochemical markers are being explored to monitor progression of AD and explore treatment and detection options. The primary focus of this thesis is to identify key biomarkers to understand the pathogenesis and prognosis of Alzheimer's Disease. Feature selection is the process of finding a subset of relevant features to develop efficient and robust learning models. It is an active research topic in diverse areas such as computer vision, bioinformatics, information retrieval, chemical informatics, and computational finance. In this work, state of the art feature selection algorithms, such as Student's t-test, Relief-F, Information Gain, Gini Index, Chi-Square, Fisher Kernel Score, Kruskal-Wallis, Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance, and Sparse Logistic regression with Stability Selection have been extensively exploited to identify informative features for AD using data from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). An integrative approach which uses blood plasma protein, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, and psychometric assessment scores biomarkers has been explored. This work also analyzes the techniques to handle unbalanced data and evaluate the efficacy of sampling techniques. Performance of feature selection algorithm is evaluated using the relevance of derived features and the predictive power of the algorithm using Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers. Performance metrics such as Accuracy, Sensitivity and Specificity, and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) have been used for evaluation. The feature selection algorithms best suited to analyze AD proteomics data have been proposed. The key biomarkers distinguishing healthy and AD patients, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) converters and non-converters, and healthy and MCI patients have been identified.

In recent years, service oriented computing (SOC) has become a widely accepted paradigm for the development of distributed applications such as web services, grid computing and cloud computing systems. In service-based systems (SBS), multiple service requests with specific performance requirements make services compete for system resources. IT service providers need to allocate resources to services so the performance requirements of customers can be satisfied. Workload and performance models are required for efficient resource management and service performance assurance in SBS. This dissertation develops two methods to understand and model the cause-effect relations of service-related activities with resources workload and service performance. Part one presents an empirical method that requires the collection of system dynamics data and the application of statistical analyses. The results show that the method is capable to: 1) uncover the impacts of services on resource workload and service performance, 2) identify interaction effects of multiple services running concurrently, 3) gain insights about resource and performance tradeoffs of services, and 4) build service workload and performance models. In part two, the empirical method is used to investigate the impacts of services, security mechanisms and cyber attacks on resources workload and service performance. The information obtained is used to: 1) uncover interaction effects of services, security mechanisms and cyber attacks, 2) identify tradeoffs within limits of system resources, and 3) develop general/specific strategies for system survivability. Finally, part three presents a framework based on the usage profiles of services competing for resources and the resource-sharing schemes. The framework is used to: 1) uncover the impacts of service parameters (e.g. arrival distribution, execution time distribution, priority, workload intensity, scheduling algorithm) on workload and performance, and 2) build service workload and performance models at individual resources. The estimates obtained from service workload and performance models at individual resources can be aggregated to obtain overall estimates of services through multiple system resources. The workload and performance models of services obtained through both methods can be used for the efficient resource management and service performance assurance in SBS.

Current economic conditions necessitate the extension of service lives for a variety of aerospace systems. As a result, there is an increased need for structural health management (SHM) systems to increase safety, extend life, reduce maintenance costs, and minimize downtime, lowering life cycle costs for these aging systems. The implementation of such a system requires a collaborative research effort in a variety of areas such as novel sensing techniques, robust algorithms for damage interrogation, high fidelity probabilistic progressive damage models, and hybrid residual life estimation models. This dissertation focuses on the sensing and damage estimation aspects of this multidisciplinary topic for application in metallic and composite material systems. The primary means of interrogating a structure in this work is through the use of Lamb wave propagation which works well for the thin structures used in aerospace applications. Piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) were selected for this application since they can be used as both sensors and actuators of guided waves. Placement of these transducers is an important issue in wave based approaches as Lamb waves are sensitive to changes in material properties, geometry, and boundary conditions which may obscure the presence of damage if they are not taken into account during sensor placement. The placement scheme proposed in this dissertation arranges piezoelectric transducers in a pitch-catch mode so the entire structure can be covered using a minimum number of sensors. The stress distribution of the structure is also considered so PZTs are placed in regions where they do not fail before the host structure. In order to process the data from these transducers, advanced signal processing techniques are employed to detect the presence of damage in complex structures. To provide a better estimate of the damage for accurate life estimation, machine learning techniques are used to classify the type of damage in the structure. A data structure analysis approach is used to reduce the amount of data collected and increase computational efficiency. In the case of low velocity impact damage, fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors were used with a nonlinear regression tool to reconstruct the loading at the impact site.