The fast growth of the power system industry and the increase in the usage of computerized management systems introduces more complexities to power systems operations. Although these computerized management systems help system operators manage power systems reliably and efficiently, they introduce the threat of cyber-attacks. In this regard, this dissertation focuses on the load-redistribution (LR) attacks, which cause overflows in power systems. Previous researchers have shown the possibility of launching undetectable LR attacks against power systems, even when protection schemes exist. This fact pushes researchers to develop detection mechanisms. In this thesis, real-time detection mechanisms are developed based on the fundamental knowledge of power systems, operation research, and machine learning. First, power systems domain insight is used to identify an underlying exploitable structure for the core problem of LR attacks. Secondly, a greedy algorithm’s ability to solve the identified structure to optimality is proved, which helps operators quickly find the best attack vector and the most sensitive buses for each target transmission asset. Then, two quantitative security indices are proposed and leveraged to develop a measurement threat analysis (MTA) tool. Finally, a machine learning-based classifier is used to enhance the MTA tool’s functionality in flagging tiny LR attacks and distinguishing them from measurement/forecasting errors. On the other hand, after acknowledging that an adversarial LR attack interferes with the system, establishing a corrective action is imperative to mitigate or remove the potential consequences of the attack. This dissertation proposes two corrective actions; the first one is developed based on the worst-case attack scenario, considering the information provided by the MTA tool. After The MTA tool flags an LR attack in the system, it should determine the primary target and other affected transmission assets, using which the operator can estimate the actual loads in the post-attack stage. This estimation is essential since the corresponding security constraints in the first corrective action model are modeled based on these loads. The second one is a robust optimization that considers various load scenarios. The functionality of this robust model does not depend on the information provided by the MTA tool and is more reliable.

With demand for increased efficiency and smaller carbon footprint, power system operators are striving to improve their modeling, down to the individual consumer device, paving the way for higher production and consumption efficiencies and increased renewable generation without sacrificing system reliability. This dissertation explores two lines of research. The first part looks at stochastic continuous-time power system scheduling, where the goal is to better capture system ramping characteristics to address increased variability and uncertainty. The second part of the dissertation starts by developing aggregate population models for residential Demand Response (DR), focusing on storage devices, Electric Vehicles (EVs), Deferrable Appliances (DAs) and Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCLs). Further, the characteristics of such a population aggregate are explored, such as the resemblance to energy storage devices, and particular attentions is given to how such aggregate models can be considered approximately convex even if the individual resource model is not. Armed with an approximately convex aggregate model for DR, how to interface it with present day energy markets is explored, looking at directions the market could go towards to better accommodate such devices for the benefit of not only the prosumer itself but the system as a whole.

The flexibility in power system networks is not fully modeled in existing real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) and real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (RT SCED) applications. Thus, corrective transmission switching (CTS) is proposed in this dissertation to enable RTCA and RT SCED to take advantage of the flexibility in the transmission system in a practical way.

RTCA is first conducted to identify critical contingencies that may cause violations. Then, for each critical contingency, CTS is performed to determine the beneficial switching actions that can reduce post-contingency violations. To reduce computational burden, fast heuristic algorithms are proposed to generate candidate switching lists. Numerical simulations performed on three large-scale realistic power systems (TVA, ERCOT, and PJM) demonstrate that CTS can significantly reduce post-contingency violations. Parallel computing can further reduce the solution time.

RT SCED is to eliminate the actual overloads and potential post-contingency overloads identified by RTCA. Procedure-A, which is consistent with existing industry practices, is proposed to connect RTCA and RT SCED. As CTS can reduce post-contingency violations, higher branch limits, referred to as pseudo limits, may be available for some contingency-case network constraints. Thus, Procedure-B is proposed to take advantage of the reliability benefits provided by CTS. With the proposed Procedure-B, CTS can be modeled in RT SCED implicitly through the proposed pseudo limits for contingency-case network constraints, which requires no change to existing RT SCED tools. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the proposed Procedure-A can effectively eliminate the flow violations reported by RTCA and that the proposed Procedure-B can reduce most of the congestion cost with consideration of CTS.

The system status may be inaccurately estimated due to false data injection (FDI) cyber-attacks, which may mislead operators to adjust the system improperly and cause network violations. Thus, a two-stage FDI detection (FDID) approach, along with several metrics and an alert system, is proposed in this dissertation to detect FDI attacks. The first stage is to determine whether the system is under attack and the second stage would identify the target branch. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed two-stage FDID approach.

The electric power system is monitored via an extensive network of sensors in tandem with data processing algorithms, i.e., an intelligent cyber layer, that enables continual observation and control of the physical system to ensure reliable operations. This data collection and processing system is vulnerable to cyber-attacks that impact the system operation status and lead to serious physical consequences, including systematic problems and failures.

This dissertation studies the physical consequences of unobservable false data injection (FDI) attacks wherein the attacker maliciously changes supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) or phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements, on the electric power system. In this context, the dissertation is divided into three parts, in which the first two parts focus on FDI attacks on SCADA and the last part focuses on FDI attacks on PMUs.

The first part studies the physical consequences of FDI attacks on SCADA measurements designed with limited system information. The attacker is assumed to have perfect knowledge inside a sub-network of the entire system. Two classes of attacks with different assumptions on the attacker's knowledge outside of the sub-network are introduced. In particular, for the second class of attacks, the attacker is assumed to have no information outside of the attack sub-network, but can perform multiple linear regression to learn the relationship between the external network and the attack sub-network with historical data. To determine the worst possible consequences of both classes of attacks, a bi-level optimization problem wherein the first level models the attacker's goal and the second level models the system response is introduced.

The second part of the dissertation concentrates on analyzing the vulnerability of systems to FDI attacks from the perspective of the system. To this end, an off-line vulnerability analysis framework is proposed to identify the subsets of the test system that are more prone to FDI attacks.

The third part studies the vulnerability of PMUs to FDI attacks. Two classes of more sophisticated FDI attacks that capture the temporal correlation of PMU data are introduced. Such attacks are designed with a convex optimization problem and can always bypass both the bad data detector and the low-rank decomposition (LD) detector.

Large-scale integration of wind generation introduces planning and operational difficulties due to the intermittent and highly variable nature of wind. In particular, the generation from non-hydro renewable resources is inherently variable and often times difficult to predict. Integrating significant amounts of renewable generation, thus, presents a challenge to the power systems operators, requiring additional flexibility, which may incur a decrease of conventional generation capacity.

This research investigates the algorithms employing emerging computational advances in system operation policies that can improve the flexibility of the electricity industry. The focus of this study is on flexible operation policies for renewable generation, particularly wind generation. Specifically, distributional forecasts of windfarm generation are used to dispatch a “discounted” amount of the wind generation, leaving a reserve margin that can be used for reserve if needed. This study presents systematic mathematic formulations that allow the operator incorporate this flexibility into the operation optimization model to increase the benefits in the energy and reserve scheduling procedure. Incorporating this formulation into the dispatch optimization problem provides the operator with the ability of using forecasted probability distributions as well as the off-line generated policies to choose proper approaches for operating the system in real-time. Methods to generate such policies are discussed and a forecast-based approach for developing wind margin policies is presented. The impacts of incorporating such policies in the electricity market models are also investigated.

The power system is the largest man-made physical network in the world. Performing analysis of a large bulk system is computationally complex, especially when the study involves engineering, economic and environmental considerations. For instance, running a unit-commitment (UC) over a large system involves a huge number of constraints and integer variables. One way to reduce the computational expense is to perform the analysis on a small equivalent (reduced) model instead on the original (full) model.

The research reported here focuses on improving the network reduction methods so that the calculated results obtained from the reduced model better approximate the performance of the original model. An optimization-based Ward reduction (OP-Ward) and two new generator placement methods in network reduction are introduced and numerical test results on large systems provide proof of concept.

In addition to dc-type reductions (ignoring reactive power, resistance elements in the network, etc.), the new methods applicable to ac domain are introduced. For conventional reduction methods (Ward-type methods, REI-type methods), eliminating external generator buses (PV buses) is a tough problem, because it is difficult to accurately approximate the external reactive support in the reduced model. Recently, the holomorphic embedding (HE) based load-flow method (HELM) was proposed, which theoretically guarantees convergence given that the power flow equations are structure in accordance with Stahl’s theory requirements. In this work, a holomorphic embedding based network reduction (HE reduction) method is proposed which takes advantage of the HELM technique. Test results shows that the HE reduction method can approximate the original system performance very accurately even when the operating condition changes.

As the world embraces a sustainable energy future, alternative energy resources, such as wind power, are increasingly being seen as an integral part of the future electric energy grid. Ultimately, integrating such a dynamic and variable mix of generation requires a better understanding of renewable generation output, in addition to power grid systems that improve power system operational performance in the presence of anticipated events such as wind power ramps. Because of the stochastic, uncontrollable nature of renewable resources, a thorough and accurate characterization of wind activity is necessary to maintain grid stability and reliability. Wind power ramps from an existing wind farm are studied to characterize persistence forecasting errors using extreme value analysis techniques. In addition, a novel metric that quantifies the amount of non-stationarity in time series wind power data was proposed and used in a real-time algorithm to provide a rigorous method that adaptively determines training data for forecasts. Lastly, large swings in generation or load can cause system frequency and tie-line flows to deviate from nominal, so an anticipatory MPC-based secondary control scheme was designed and integrated into an automatic generation control loop to improve the ability of an interconnection to respond to anticipated large events and fluctuations in the power system.

Two thirds of the U.S. power systems are operated under market structures. A good market design should maximize social welfare and give market participants proper incentives to follow market solutions. Pricing schemes play very important roles in market design.

Locational marginal pricing scheme is the core pricing scheme in energy markets. Locational marginal prices are good pricing signals for dispatch marginal costs. However, the locational marginal prices alone are not incentive compatible since energy markets are non-convex markets. Locational marginal prices capture dispatch costs but fail to capture commitment costs such as startup cost, no-load cost, and shutdown cost. As a result, uplift payments are paid to generators in markets in order to provide incentives for generators to follow market solutions. The uplift payments distort pricing signals.

In this thesis, pricing schemes in electric energy markets are studied. In the first part, convex hull pricing scheme is studied and the pricing model is extended with network constraints. The subgradient algorithm is applied to solve the pricing model. In the second part, a stochastic dispatchable pricing model is proposed to better address the non-convexity and uncertainty issues in day-ahead energy markets. In the third part, an energy storage arbitrage model with the current locational marginal price scheme is studied. Numerical test cases are studied to show the arguments in this thesis.

The overall market and pricing scheme design is a very complex problem. This thesis gives a thorough overview of pricing schemes in day-ahead energy markets and addressed several key issues in the markets. New pricing schemes are proposed to improve market efficiency.

Constraint relaxation by definition means that certain security, operational, or financial constraints are allowed to be violated in the energy market model for a predetermined penalty price. System operators utilize this mechanism in an effort to impose a price-cap on shadow prices throughout the market. In addition, constraint relaxations can serve as corrective approximations that help in reducing the occurrence of infeasible or extreme solutions in the day-ahead markets. This work aims to capture the impact constraint relaxations have on system operational security. Moreover, this analysis also provides a better understanding of the correlation between DC market models and AC real-time systems and analyzes how relaxations in market models propagate to real-time systems. This information can be used not only to assess the criticality of constraint relaxations, but also as a basis for determining penalty prices more accurately.

Constraint relaxations practice was replicated in this work using a test case and a real-life large-scale system, while capturing both energy market aspects and AC real-time system performance. System performance investigation included static and dynamic security analysis for base-case and post-contingency operating conditions. PJM peak hour loads were dynamically modeled in order to capture delayed voltage recovery and sustained depressed voltage profiles as a result of reactive power deficiency caused by constraint relaxations. Moreover, impacts of constraint relaxations on operational system security were investigated when risk based penalty prices are used. Transmission lines in the PJM system were categorized according to their risk index and each category was as-signed a different penalty price accordingly in order to avoid real-time overloads on high risk lines.

This work also extends the investigation of constraint relaxations to post-contingency relaxations, where emergency limits are allowed to be relaxed in energy market models. Various scenarios were investigated to capture and compare between the impacts of base-case and post-contingency relaxations on real-time system performance, including the presence of both relaxations simultaneously. The effect of penalty prices on the number and magnitude of relaxations was investigated as well.

ABSTRACT

This dissertation introduces a real-time topology monitoring scheme for power systems intended to provide enhanced situational awareness during major system disturbances. The topology monitoring scheme requires accurate real-time topology information to be effective. This scheme is supported by advances in transmission line outage detection based on data-mining phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements.

A network flow analysis scheme is proposed to track changes in user defined minimal cut sets within the system. This work introduces a new algorithm used to update a previous network flow solution after the loss of a single system branch. The proposed new algorithm provides a significantly decreased solution time that is desired in a real- time environment. This method of topology monitoring can provide system operators with visual indications of potential problems in the system caused by changes in topology.

This work also presents a method of determining all singleton cut sets within a given network topology called the one line remaining (OLR) algorithm. During operation, if a singleton cut set exists, then the system cannot withstand the loss of any one line and still remain connected. The OLR algorithm activates after the loss of a transmission line and determines if any singleton cut sets were created. These cut sets are found using properties of power transfer distribution factors and minimal cut sets.

The topology analysis algorithms proposed in this work are supported by line outage detection using PMU measurements aimed at providing accurate real-time topology information. This process uses a decision tree (DT) based data-mining approach to characterize a lost tie line in simulation. The trained DT is then used to analyze PMU measurements to detect line outages. The trained decision tree was applied to real PMU measurements to detect the loss of a 500 kV line and had no misclassifications.

The work presented has the objective of enhancing situational awareness during significant system disturbances in real time. This dissertation presents all parts of the proposed topology monitoring scheme and justifies and validates the methodology using a real system event.