The Interactive Effects of Precipitation and Disturbance on the Functioning of Dryland Ecosystems as Modulated by Mean Annual Precipitation

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Description
Terrestrial ecosystems are critical to human welfare and regulating Earth’s life support systems but many gaps in our knowledge remain regarding how terrestrial plant communities respond to changes in climate or human actions. I used field experiments distributed across three…

Terrestrial ecosystems are critical to human welfare and regulating Earth’s life support systems but many gaps in our knowledge remain regarding how terrestrial plant communities respond to changes in climate or human actions. I used field experiments distributed across three dryland ecosystems in North America to evaluate the consequences of changing precipitation and physical disturbance on plant community structure and function. Evidence from experiments and observational work exploring both plant community composition and ecological processes suggest that physical disturbance and precipitation reductions can reduce the diversity and function of these dryland ecosystems. Specifically, I found that aboveground net primary productivity could be reduced in an interactive manner when precipitation reductions and physical disturbance co-occur, and that within sites, this reduction in productivity was greater when growing-season precipitation was low. Further, I found that these dryland plant communities, commonly dominated by highly drought-resistant shrubs and perennial grasses, were not capable of compensating for the absence of these dominant shrubs and perennial grasses when they were removed by disturbance, and that precipitation reductions (as predicted to occur from anthropogenic climate change) exacerbate these gaps. Collectively, the results of the field experiment suggest that current management paradigms of maintaining cover and structure of native perennial plants in dryland systems are well founded and may be especially important as climate variability increases over time. Evaluating how these best management practices take place in the real world is an important extension of fundamental ecological research. To address the research-management gap in the context of dryland ecosystems in the western US, I used a set of environmental management plans and remotely sensed data to investigate how ecosystem services in drylands are accounted for, both as a supply from the land base and as a demand from stakeholders. Focusing on a less-investigated land base in the United States–areas owned and managed by the Department of Defense–I explored how ecosystem services are produced by this unique land management arrangement even if they are not explicitly managed for under current management schemes. My findings support a growing body of evidence that Department of Defense lands represent a valuable conservation opportunity, both for biodiversity and ecosystem services, if management regimes fully integrate the ecosystem services concept.
Date Created
2024
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The Role of Hydrologic Variability in Food Security: An analysis on the effect of variable hydrology on food systems in the Mekong

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Description
Functioning freshwater ecosystems are widely recognized as a planetary boundary for the continued human inhabitation of our planet, but little is known about the tradeoffs at the nexus of food, energy and water. In this dissertation I explored the…

Functioning freshwater ecosystems are widely recognized as a planetary boundary for the continued human inhabitation of our planet, but little is known about the tradeoffs at the nexus of food, energy and water. In this dissertation I explored the effects of hydrologic variability in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) on rice production and functional structure of fish catches. I then examined the tradeoffs at the intersection of fish and rice harvest as a function of hydrologic variability and modeled production under novel engineered hydrologic scenarios. I modeled rice production using a Multivariate Autoregressive State Space (MARSS) model and mechanistically tested for the effect of saline intrusion. I found rice production to be heterogeneously affected by hydrology; in saline afflicted areas, floods had a positive effect size on production, whereas in non-saline afflicted areas, floods had a negative effect size on production. To address hydrologic filtering of the functional structure of fish catches, I collected thousands of specimens from over 100 LMB species in collaboration with Cambodia’s Inland Fisheries Research and Development institute and the Royal University of Agriculture. LMB fishes comprise a large portion of the 1,200 known species in the basin and have historically provided a substantial amount of animal protein to 60 million people in the region. Using an RLQ, co-inertia analysis, I found four functionally relevant morphological trats that were significantly associated with hydrologic variation—mouth position, maxillary length, relative body depth, and relative head depth. These traits are associated with many of the threated species in the LMB, which make up a large portion of the 1200 known species in the basin and have historically provided a substantial amount of animal protein to 60 million people in the region. To examine the tradeoffs within food systems, I used MARSS maximum likelihood estimation to forecast fish and rice production throughout the LMB under different hydrologic scenarios. I end my dissertation with an opinion piece on NexGen Mekong Scientists, a program I started in 2020 with funding from the United States Department of State.
Date Created
2024
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Heat of the Moment: Building Pathways to Sustainable Futures in the Face of Extreme Heat

Description

This research explores the use of transformative urban scenarios and timelines as a planning tool for addressing future sustainability challenges in urban environments. The analysis comes from a set of scenarios that were explored through workshops conducted in 2019 in…

This research explores the use of transformative urban scenarios and timelines as a planning tool for addressing future sustainability challenges in urban environments. The analysis comes from a set of scenarios that were explored through workshops conducted in 2019 in which Phoenix stakeholders developed timelines toward their visions of Phoenix 60 years into the future. To evaluate the pathways created in these timelines, we employed process tracing methodology to understand which causal mechanisms lead to certain phenomena. Or in other words, it helps us understand how changes happen. We converted the timelines into process tracing diagrams that categorized the relationship between actions, actors, and observable manifestations (OM’s) of change over time. To understand the relationship between these components, we then used a combination of inductive and deductive coding to categorize types of activities, actors, OM’s and sustainability topics and organized them into themes. This helped us to understand how city decision-makers and community leaders think sustainability and resilience transformation can and should occur. This thesis takes a closer look at one particular scenario, Some Like it Hot, which explores resilience to extreme heat. Through coding and analysis, we found trends, correlations, and missing pieces in the participants’ timeline. There are numerous overarching causal mechanisms throughout the scenario timeline. These trends offer insight into which activities and stakeholders are seen as significant drivers of sustainable transformation according to the workshop participants. The file attached is a pdf version of an ArcGIS Story Map completed for this honors thesis. To view the full, interactive thesis deliverable, visit https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/14d1e52a9448498e87f20e7566651a13

Date Created
2023-05
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Establishing Explainability in Data-Driven Modeling for Ecohydrology: From Rainfall, River Flow, to Fish Migration

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Description
Integrated water resources management for flood control, water distribution, conservation, and food security require understanding hydrological spatial and temporal trends. Proliferation of monitoring and sensor data has boosted data-driven simulation and evaluation. Developing data-driven models for such physical process-related phenomena,…

Integrated water resources management for flood control, water distribution, conservation, and food security require understanding hydrological spatial and temporal trends. Proliferation of monitoring and sensor data has boosted data-driven simulation and evaluation. Developing data-driven models for such physical process-related phenomena, and meaningful interpretability therein, necessitates an inventive methodology. In this dissertation, I developed time series and deep learning model that connected rainfall, runoff, and fish species abundances. I also investigated the underlying explainabilty for hydrological processes and impacts on fish species. First, I created a streamflow simulation model using computer vision and natural language processing as an alternative to physical-based routing. I tested it on seven US river network sections and showed it outperformed time series models, deep learning baselines, and novel variants. In addition, my model explained flow routing without physical parameter input or time-consuming calibration. On the basis of this model, I expanded it from accepting dispersed spatial inputs to adopting comprehensive 2D grid data. I constructed a spatial-temporal deep leaning model for rainfall-runoff simulation. I tested it against a semi-distributed hydrological model and found superior results. Furthermore, I investigated the potential interpretability for rainfall-runoff process in both space and time. To understand impacts of flow variation on fish species, I applied a frequency based model framework for long term time series data simulation. First, I discovered that timing of hydrological anomalies was as crucial as their size. Flooding and drought, when properly timed, were both linked with excellent fishing productivity. To identify responses of various fish trait groups, I used this model to assess mitigated hydrological variation by fish attributes. Longitudinal migratory fish species were more impacted by flow variance, whereas migratory strategy species reacted in the same direction but to various degrees. Finally, I investigated future fish population changes under alternative design flow scenarios and showed that a protracted low flow with a powerful, on-time flood pulse would benefit fish. In my dissertation, I constructed three data-driven models that link the hydrological cycle to the stream environment and give insight into the underlying physical process, which is vital for quantitative, efficient, and integrated water resource management.
Date Created
2022
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Ecosystem Services from Urban Ecological Infrastructure: Perceptions, Performance, and Priorities for Climate Resilient Cities

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Description
Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity, and cities are likely to experience many of the most dangerous effects of climate change. One way that cities aim to adapt to become more resilient to climate change…

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity, and cities are likely to experience many of the most dangerous effects of climate change. One way that cities aim to adapt to become more resilient to climate change is through the provision of locally produced ecosystem services: the benefits that people get from nature. In cities, these ecosystem services are provided by diverse forms of urban ecological infrastructure (UEI): all parts of a city that include ecological structure and function. While there is a growing body of research touting the multifunctionality of UEI and an increasing number of cities implementing UEI plans, there remain important gaps in understanding how UEI features perform at providing ecosystem services and how the local social-ecological-technological context affects the efficacy of UEI solutions. Inspired by the need for cities to adapt to become more resilient to climate change, this dissertation takes an interdisciplinary approach to understand how diverse UEI features and their ecosystem services are perceived, provided, and prioritized for current and future climate resilience. The second chapter explores how a diverse group of local actors in Valdivia, Chile perceives the city’s urban wetlands and identifies common trade-offs in the perceived importance of different ecosystem services from the wetlands. The third chapter demonstrates species-level differences and trade-offs between common street trees in Phoenix, Arizona in their ability to provide the ecosystem services of both local climate regulation and stormwater regulation. The fourth chapter compares how participatory scenarios from nine cities across the United States and Latin America vary in the degree to which they incorporate UEI and ecosystem services into future visions. The fifth chapter returns focus to Phoenix and illustrates dominant perspectives on the prioritization of ecosystem services for achieving climate resilience and how those priorities change across temporal scales. The dissertation concludes with a synthesis of the previous chapters and suggestions for future urban ecosystem services research. Combined, this dissertation advances understanding of ecosystem services from UEI and highlights the importance of considering trade-offs among UEI features in order help achieve more just, verdant, and resilient urban futures.
Date Created
2022
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Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Ecosystem Metabolism in Aridland Streams

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Description
Stream metabolism is a critical indicator of ecosystem health and connects stream ecology to global change. Hence, understanding the controls of metabolism is essential because streams integrate land use and could be net sources or sinks of carbon dioxide (and…

Stream metabolism is a critical indicator of ecosystem health and connects stream ecology to global change. Hence, understanding the controls of metabolism is essential because streams integrate land use and could be net sources or sinks of carbon dioxide (and methane) to the atmosphere. Eleven aridland streams in the southwestern US (Arizona) across a hydroclimatic and size (watershed area) gradient were surveyed, and gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) were modeled and averaged seasonally over a period of 2-4 years. The seasonal averaged GPP went as low as 0.001 g O2m-2d-1 (Ramsey Creek in 1st quarter of 2017) and as high as 14.6 g O2m-2d-1 (Santa Cruz River in 2nd quarter of 2017), whereas that of ER ranged from 0.003 (Ramsey Creek in 1st quarter of 2017) to 20.3 g O2m-2d-1 (Santa Cruz River in 2nd quarter of in 2017). The coefficient of variation (CV) of these GPP estimates within site ranged from 42% (Upper Verde River) to 157% (Wet Beaver Creek), with an average CV of GPP 91%, whereas the CV of ER ranged from 32% (Upper Verde River) to 247% (Ramsey Creek), with an average CV of ER 85%. Among 4 main categories of hypothetical predictors (hydrology, nutrient concentration, local environment, and size) on CV and point measurement of stream metabolism, the following conclusion was made: hydrologic variation only predicted the ER and CV of ER but not the GPP or CV of GPP; light and its CV controlled GPP and its CV, respectively, whereas temperature was one of the controlling factors for ER; CV of nutrient concentration was one of the drivers of CV of GPP, nitrate concentration was correlated with point measurement of GPP and ER while soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration was only relevant to GPP; watershed area was correlated with CV of GPP, while depth mattered to both GPP and ER. My work will enhance our understanding of streams at multiple temporal and spatial scales and ultimately will benefit river management practice.
Date Created
2022
Agent

Guía para planificar acciones contra el calor para los vecindarios de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix: crear soluciones al calor urbano en el Valle del Sol (versión de baja resolución)

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Date Created
2022
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Guía para planificar acciones contra el calor para los vecindarios de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix: crear soluciones al calor urbano en el Valle del Sol (versión de alta resolución)

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Date Created
2022
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Guía para planificar acciones contra el calor para los vecindarios de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix: crear soluciones al calor urbano en el Valle del Sol

Description

En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará…

En la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, el calor urbano está afectando la salud, la seguridad y la economía y se espera que estos impactos empeoren con el tiempo. Se prevé que el número de días por encima de 110˚F aumentará más del doble para el 2060. En mayo de 2017, The Nature Conservancy, el Departamento de Salud Pública del condado de Maricopa, Central Arizona Conservation Alliance, la Red de Investigación en Sostenibilidad sobre la Resiliencia Urbana a Eventos Extremos, el Centro de Investigación del Clima Urbano de Arizona State University y el Center for Whole Communities lanzaron un proceso participativo de planificación de acciones contra el calor para identificar tanto estrategias de mitigación como de adaptación a fin de reducir directamente el calor y mejorar la capacidad de los residentes para lidiar con el calor. Las organizaciones comunitarias con relaciones existentes en tres vecindarios seleccionados para la planificación de acciones contra el calor se unieron más tarde al equipo del proyecto: Phoenix Revitalization Corporation, RAILMesa y Puente Movement. Más allá de construir un plan de acción comunitario contra el calor y completar proyectos de demostración, este proceso participativo fue diseñado para desarrollar conciencia, iniciativa y cohesión social en las comunidades subrepresentadas. Asimismo el proceso de planificación de acciones contra el calor fue diseñado para servir como modelo para esfuerzos futuros de resiliencia al calor y crear una visión local, contextual y culturalmente apropiada de un futuro más seguro y saludable. El método iterativo de planificación y participación utilizado por el equipo del proyecto fortaleció las relaciones dentro y entre los vecindarios, las organizaciones comunitarias, los responsables de la toma de decisiones y el equipo núcleo, y combinó la sabiduría de la narración de historias y la evidencia científica para comprender mejor los desafíos actuales y futuros que enfrentan los residentes durante eventos de calor extremo. Como resultado de tres talleres en cada comunidad, los residentes presentaron ideas que quieren ver implementadas para aumentar su comodidad y seguridad térmica durante los días de calor extremo.

Como se muestra a continuación, las ideas de los residentes se interceptaron en torno a conceptos similares, pero las soluciones específicas variaron entre los vecindarios. Por ejemplo, a todos los vecindarios les gustaría agregar sombra a sus corredores peatonales, pero variaron las preferencias para la ubicación de las mejoras para dar sombra. Algunos vecindarios priorizaron las rutas de transporte público, otros priorizaron las rutas utilizadas por los niños en su camino a la escuela y otros quieren paradas de descanso con sombra en lugares clave. Surgieron cuatro temas estratégicos generales en los tres vecindarios: promover y educar; mejorar la comodidad/capacidad de afrontamiento; mejorar la seguridad; fortalecer la capacidad. Estos temas señalan que existen serios desafíos de seguridad contra el calor en la vida diaria de los residentes y que la comunidad, los negocios y los sectores responsables de la toma de decisión deben abordar esos desafíos.

Los elementos del plan de acción contra el calor están diseñados para incorporarse a otros esfuerzos para aliviar el calor, crear ciudades resilientes al clima y brindar salud y seguridad pública. Los socios de implementación del plan de acción contra el calor provienen de la región de la zona metropolitana de Phoenix, y se brindan recomendaciones para apoyar la transformación a una ciudad más fresca.

Para ampliar la escala de este enfoque, los miembros del equipo del proyecto recomiendan a) compromiso continuo e inversiones en estos vecindarios para implementar el cambio señalado como vital por los residentes, b) repetir el proceso de planificación de acción contra el calor con líderes comunitarios en otros vecindarios, y c) trabajar con las ciudades, los planificadores urbanos y otras partes interesadas para institucionalizar este proceso, apoyando las políticas y el uso de las métricas propuestas para crear comunidades más frescas.

Date Created
2022
Agent

Assessing the Response of Macroinvertebrate Communities to River Flow Dynamics in the Sonoran Desert

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Description

Climate change is causing hydrologic intensification globally by increasing both the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. While environmental variation is a key regulator at all levels of ecological organization, such changes to the hydrological cycle that are beyond…

Climate change is causing hydrologic intensification globally by increasing both the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. While environmental variation is a key regulator at all levels of ecological organization, such changes to the hydrological cycle that are beyond the normal range of variability can have strong impacts on stream and riparian ecosystems within sensitive landscapes, such as the American Southwest. The main objective of this study was to investigate how anomalous hydrologic variability influences macroinvertebrate communities in desert streams. I studied seasonal changes in aquatic macroinvertebrate abundances in eleven streams that encompass a hydrologic gradient across Arizona’s Sonoran Desert. This analysis was coupled with the quantification and assessment of stochastic hydrology to determine influences of flow regimes and discrete events on invertebrate community composition. I found high community variability within sites, illustrated by seasonal measures of beta diversity and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) plots. I observed notable patterns of NMDS data points when invertebrate abundances were summarized by summer versus winter surveys. These results suggest that there is a difference within the communities between summer and winter seasons, irrespective of differences in site hydroclimate. Estimates of beta diversity were the best metric for summarizing and comparing diversity among sites, compared to richness difference and replacement. Seasonal measures of beta diversity either increased, decreased, or stayed constant across the study period, further demonstrating the high variation within and among study sites. Regime shifts, summarized by regime shift frequency (RSF) and mean net annual anomaly (NAA), and anomalous events, summarized by the power of blue noise (Maximum Blue Noise), were the best predictors of macroinvertebrate diversity, and thus should be more widely applied to ecological data. These results suggest that future studies of community composition in freshwater systems should focus on understanding the cause of variation in biodiversity gradients. This study highlights the importance of considering both flow regimes and discrete anomalous events when studying spatial and temporal variation in stream communities.

Date Created
2021
Agent
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