Flowering phenology offers a sensitive and reliable biological indicator of climate change because plants use climatic and other environmental cues to initiate flower production. Drylands are the largest terrestrial biome, but with unpredictable precipitation patterns and infertile soils, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. There is a need to increase our comprehension of how dryland plants might respond and adapt to environmental changes. I conducted a meta-analysis on the flowering phenology of dryland plants and showed that some species responded to climate change through accelerated flowering, while others delayed their flowering dates. Dryland plants advanced their mean flowering dates by 2.12 days decade-1, 2.83 days °C-1 and 2.91 days mm-1, respectively, responding to time series, temperature, and precipitation. Flowering phenology responses varied across taxonomic and functional groups, with the grass family Poaceae (-3.91 days decade1) and bulb forming Amaryllidaceae (-0.82 days decade1) showing the highest and lowest time series responses respectively, while Brassicaceae was not responsive. Analysis from herbarium specimens collected across Namibian drylands, spanning 26 species and six families, revealed that plants in hyper-arid to arid regions have lower phenological sensitivity to temperature (-9 days °C-1) and greater phenological responsiveness to precipitation (-0.56 days mm-1) than those in arid to semi-arid regions (-17 days °C-1, -0.35 days mm-1). The flowering phenology of serotinous plants showed greater sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation than that of non-serotinous plants. I used rainout shelters to reduce rainfall in a field experiment and showed that drought treatment advanced the vegetative and reproductive phenology of Cleome gynandra, a highly nutritional and medicinal semi-wild vegetable species. The peak leaf length date, peak number of leaves date, and peak flowering date of Cleome gynandra advanced by six, 10 and seven days, respectively. Lastly, I simulated drought and flood in a greenhouse experiment and found that flooding conditions resulted in higher germination percentage of C. gynandra than drought. My study found that the vegetative, and flowering phenology of dryland plants is responsive to climate change, with differential responses across taxonomic and functional groups, and aridity zones, which could alter the structure and function of these systems.

Quantifying the interactions among food, energy, and water (FEW) systems is crucial to support integrated policies for the nexus governance. Metropolitan areas are the main consumption and distribution centers of these three resources and, as urbanization continues, their role will become even more central. Despite this, the current understanding of FEW systems in metropolitan regions is limited. In this dissertation, the key factors leading to a more sustainable FEW system are identified in the metropolitan area of Phoenix, Arizona using the integrated WEAP-MABIA-LEAP platform. In this region, the FEW nexus is challenged by dramatic population growth, competition among increasing FEW demand, and limited water availability that could further decrease under climate change. First, it was shown that the WEAP platform allows the reliable simulations of water allocations from supply sources to demand sectors and that agriculture is a key stressor of the nexus, which will require additional groundwater (+83%) and energy (+15%) if cropland area is preserved over the next 50 years. Second, the climate change impacts on the food-water nexus were quantified by applying the WEAP-MABIA model with climate projections up to 2100 from 27 GCMs under different warming levels. It was found that the increases in temperature will lead to higher atmospheric evaporation demand that will, in turn, reduce crop production at a rate of -4.8% per decade. In the last part, the fully integrated WEAP-MABIA-LEAP platform was applied to investigate future scenarios of the FEW nexus in the metropolitan region. Several scenarios targeting each FEW sector were compared through sustainability indicators quantifying availability/consumption, reliability, and productivity of the three resources. Results showed that increasing renewable energy and changing cropping patterns will increase the FEW nexus sustainability compared to business-as-usual conditions. The findings of this dissertation, along with its analytical approach, support policy making towards integrated FEW governance and sustainable development.

The fast pace of global urbanization makes cities the hotspots of population density and anthropogenic activities, leading to intensive emissions of heat and carbon dioxide (CO2), a primary greenhouse gas. Urban climate scientists have been actively seeking effective mitigation strategies over the past decades, aiming to improve the environmental quality for urban dwellers. Prior studies have identified the role of urban green spaces in the relief of urban heat stress. Yet little effort was devoted to quantify their contribution to local and regional CO2 budget. In fact, urban biogenic CO2 fluxes from photosynthesis and respiration are influenced by the microclimate in the built environment and are sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. The high complexity of the urban ecosystem leads to an outstanding challenge for numerical urban models to disentangling and quantifying the interplay between heat and carbon dynamics.This dissertation aims to advance the simulation of thermal and carbon dynamics in urban land surface models, and to investigate the role of urban greening practices and urban system design in mitigating heat and CO2 emissions. The biogenic CO2 exchange in cities is parameterized by incorporating plant physiological functions into an advanced single-layer urban canopy model in the built environment. The simulation result replicates the microclimate and CO2 flux patterns measured from an eddy covariance system over a residential neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the model decomposes the total CO2 flux from observation and identifies the significant CO2 efflux from soil respiration. The model is then applied to quantify the impact of urban greening practices on heat and biogenic CO2 exchange over designed scenarios. The result shows the use of urban greenery is effective in mitigating both urban heat and carbon emissions, providing environmental co-benefit in cities. Furthermore, to seek the optimal urban system design in terms of thermal comfort and CO2 reduction, a multi-objective optimization algorithm is applied to the machine learning surrogates of the physical urban land surface model. There are manifest trade-offs among ameliorating diverse urban environmental indicators despite the co-benefit from urban greening. The findings of this dissertation, along with its implications on urban planning and landscaping management, would promote sustainable urban development strategies for achieving optimal environmental quality for policy makers, urban residents, and practitioners.

The monsoon season is an important part of Arizona's ecosystem as it provides 33% of Maricopa's annual rainfall. However, the monsoon also brings storms with high rainfall intensity which can cause floods. As Maricopa continues to expand and become more urbanized, it may become more susceptible to flooding. This project analyzes watersheds across Maricopa County to determine the amount of runoff that occurs for a given rainfall event.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s National Water Model (NWM) will provide the next generation of operational streamflow forecasts at different lead times across United States using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro hydrologic system. These forecasts are crucial for flood protection agencies and water utilities, including the Salt River Project (SRP). The main goal of this study is to calibrate WRF-Hydro in the Oak Creek Basin (OCB; ~820 km2), an unregulated mountain sub-watershed of the Salt and Verde River basins in Central Arizona, whose water resources are managed by SRP and crucial for the Phoenix Metropolitan area. As in the NWM, WRF-Hydro was set up at 1-km (250-m) resolution for the computation of the rainfall-runoff (routing) processes. Model forcings were obtained by bias correcting meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System-2 (NLDAS-2). A manual calibration approach was designed that targets, in sequence, the sets of model parameters controlling four main processes responsible for streamflow and flood generation in the OCB. After a first calibration effort, it was found that WRF-Hydro is able to simulate runoff generated after snowmelt and baseflow, as well as magnitude and timing of flood peaks due to winter storms. However, the model underestimates the magnitude of flood peaks caused by summer thunderstorms, likely because these storms are not captured by NLDAS-2. To circumvent this, a seasonal modification of soil parameters was adopted. When doing so, acceptable model performances were obtained during calibration (2008-2011) and validation (2012-2017) periods (NSE > 0.62 and RMSE = ~2.5 m3/s at the daily time scale).

The process-based calibration strategy utilized in this work provides a new approach to identify areas of structural improvement for WRF-Hydro and the NWM.

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is the primary source of water in the

southwestern United States. A key step to reduce the uncertainty of future streamflow

projections in the CRB is to evaluate the performance of historical simulations of General

Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, this challenge is addressed by evaluating the

ability of nineteen GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five

(CMIP5) and four nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical

properties of the hydrologic cycle and temperature in the CRB. To capture the transition

from snow-dominated to semiarid regions, analyses are conducted by spatially averaging

the climate variables in four nested sub-basins. Most models overestimate the mean

annual precipitation (P) and underestimate the mean annual temperature (T) at all

locations. While a group of models capture the mean annual runoff at all sub-basins with

different strengths of the hydrological cycle, another set of models overestimate the mean

annual runoff, due to a weak cycle in the evaporation channel. An abrupt increase in the

mean annual T in observed and most of the simulated time series (~0.8 °C) is detected at

all locations despite the lack of any statistically significant monotonic trends for both P

and T. While all models simulate the seasonality of T quite well, the phasing of the

seasonal cycle of P is fairly reproduced in just the upper, snow-dominated sub-basin.

Model performances degrade in the larger sub-basins that include semiarid areas, because

several GCMs are not able to capture the effect of the North American monsoon. Finally,

the relative performances of the climate models in reproducing the climatologies of P and

T are quantified to support future impact studies in the basin.

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has become a common practice in United States oil fields for enhancing their productivity. Among the concerns regarding fracking, however, is the possibility that it could trigger shallow earthquakes. The brine that results from fracking is injected into the subsurface for disposal. This brine causes a pore pressure gradient that is commonly believed to trigger failure along critically stressed subsurface faults. In Timpson, a small city in eastern Texas, earthquakes have become much more common since two injection wells were installed in 2007. 16 events of M_W > 2 have been detected since 2008 and are believed to be associated with failure along a subsurface fault. Applying interferometric synthetic aperture radar, we analyzed 3 sets of SAR images from the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) from May 2007 to December 2010. Using these data sets, XX interferograms were generated. From these interferograms, it was possible to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of the crustal deformation in the line-of-sight of the satellite. The results show strong evidence of uplift in the region adjacent to the injection wells. While previous studies have established a strong connection between fluid injection and increased seismicity, this is to our knowledge the first observed case of crustal deformation that has been observed as a result of hydraulic fracturing fluid disposal.

The storm events of summer 2014 proved to be some of the highest on record for Maricopa County. Flash flooding has been an ongoing issue within Arizona during the monsoon season due to the remnants of hurricanes that result in short, high intensity storms. The proximity of these intense storm events and their corresponding flooding structures is imperative in reducing the impact of these events on the community. The analysis of the maximum precipitation events for Tempe, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Goodyear, Peoria, Avondale and Glendale during the summer of 2014 proved that there were many events that had a calculated recurrence of 100 years or greater. The storm event with the most precipitation events with a recurrence of 100 years or greater was September 8, 2014. This storm event also produced a streamflow response that had the highest recorded streamflow at gages near the events with a 100 year recurrence. These intervals represent a larger amount of rain during a precipitation event and this correlation suggests that short burst of extreme weather was not a trend in this data. Rather, high storm events occurred over the span of 24 hours. The most frequent response of the stream gage to this rain event was a streamflow event that has a recurrence of 2-5 years. This suggests that the channels and flooding structures used to contain the rain events were effective in reducing the amount of water and therefore effectively managing the flooding response. An analysis of newspaper commentary and an interview with a representative from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC) indicated that there is a disconnect between public perception and the structure of FCDMC. Through this analysis a better understanding of the FCDMC as well as the impact of severe storm events in Maricopa County was found.