The climate-driven volumetric response of unsaturated soils (shrink-swell and frost heave) frequently causes costly distresses in lightly loaded structures (pavements and shallow foundations) due to the sporadic climatic fluctuations and soil heterogeneity which is not captured during the geotechnical design. The complexity associated with the unsaturated soil mechanics combined with the high degree of variability in both the natural characteristics of soil and the empirical models which are commonly implemented tends to lead to engineering judgment outweighing the results of deterministic computations for the basis of design. Recent advances in the application of statistical techniques and Bayesian Inference in geotechnical modeling allows for the inclusion of both parameter and model uncertainty, providing a quantifiable representation of this invaluable engineering judgement. The overall goal achieved in this study was to develop, validate, and implement a new method to evaluate climate-driven volume change of shrink-swell soils using a framework that encompasses predominantly stochastic time-series techniques and mechanistic shrink-swell volume change computations. Four valuable objectives were accomplished during this research study while on the path to complete the overall goal: 1) development of an procedure for automating the selection of the Fourier Series form of the soil suction diffusion equations used to represent the natural seasonal variations in suction at the ground surface, 2) development of an improved framework for deterministic estimation of shrink-swell soil volume change using historical climate data and the Fourier series suction model, 3) development of a Bayesian approach to randomly generate combinations of correlated soil properties for use in stochastic simulations, and 4) development of a procedure to stochastically forecast the climatic parameters required for shrink-swell soil volume change estimations. The models presented can be easily implemented into existing foundation and pavement design procedures or used for forensic evaluations using historical data. For pavement design, the new framework for stochastically forecasting the variability of shrink-swell soil volume change provides significant improvement over the existing empirical models that have been used for more than four decades.

Design and mitigation of infrastructure on expansive soils requires an understanding of unsaturated soil mechanics and consideration of two stress variables (net normal stress and matric suction). Although numerous breakthroughs have allowed geotechnical engineers to study expansive soil response to varying suction-based stress scenarios (i.e. partial wetting), such studies are not practical on typical projects due to the difficulties and duration needed for equilibration associated with the necessary laboratory testing. The current practice encompasses saturated “conventional” soil mechanics testing, with the implementation of numerous empirical correlations and approximations to obtain an estimate of true field response. However, it has been observed that full wetting rarely occurs in the field, leading to an over-conservatism within a given design when partial wetting conditions are ignored. Many researchers have sought to improve ways of estimation of soil heave/shrinkage through intense studies of the suction-based response of reconstituted clay soils. However, the natural behavior of an undisturbed clay soil sample tends to differ significantly from a remolded sample of the same material.

In this study, laboratory techniques for the determination of soil suction were evaluated, a methodology for determination of the in-situ matric suction of a soil specimen was explored, and the mechanical response to changes in matric suction of natural clay specimens were measured. Suction-controlled laboratory oedometer devices were used to impose partial wetting conditions, similar to those experienced in a natural setting. The undisturbed natural soils tested in the study were obtained from Denver, CO and San Antonio, TX.

Key differences between the soil water characteristic curves of the undisturbed specimen test compared to the conventional reconstituted specimen test are highlighted. The Perko et al. (2000) and the PTI (2008) methods for estimating the relationship between volume and changes in matric suction (i.e. suction compression index) were evaluated by comparison to the directly measured values. Lastly, the directly measured partial wetting swell strain was compared to the fully saturated, one-dimensional, oedometer test (ASTM D4546) and the Surrogate Path Method (Singhal, 2010) to evaluate the estimation of partial wetting heave.