To address the dearth of knowledge about person-based and trip-level exposure, we developed the Icarus model. Icarus uses mesoscale traffic model—activity-based model—to analyze the heat exposure of regions of interest at an individual level. The goal with Icarus was to design accurate, granular models of population and temperature behavior for a target region, which could be transformed into a heat exposure model by means of simulation and spatial-temporal joining. By combining and implementing the most robust software and data available, Icarus was able to capture person-based exposure with unparalleled detail. Here we describe the model methodology. We use the metropolitan region of Phoenix, Arizona, USA to carry out a case study using Icarus.

Many people use public transportation in their daily lives, which is often praised at as a healthy and sustainable choice to make. However, in extreme temperatures this also puts people at a greater risk for negative consequences resulting from such exposure to heat. In Phoenix, public transportation riders are faced with extreme heat in the summer along with the increased internal heat production caused by the physical activity required to use public transportation. In this study, I estimated total exposure and average exposure per rider for six stops in Phoenix. To do this I used City of Phoenix ridership data, weather data, and survey responses from an ASU City of Phoenix Bus Stop Survey conducted in summer 2016. These data sets were combined by multiplying different metrics to produce various exposure values. During analysis two sets of calculations were made. One keeping weather constant and another keeping ridership constant. I found that there was a large range of exposure between the selected stops and that the thermal environment influences the amount of exposure depending on the time of day the exposure is occurring. During the morning a greener location leads to less exposure, while in the afternoon an urban location leads to less exposure. Know detailed information about exposure at these stops I was also able to evaluate survey participants' thermal comfort at each stop and how it may relate to exposure. These findings are useful in making educated transportation planning decisions and improving the quality of life for people living in places with extreme summer temperatures.