Mitigating Effects of Vaccination on Influenza Outbreaks Given Constraints in Stockpile Size and Daily Administration Capacity

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Description

Background: Influenza viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Vaccination remains a powerful tool for preventing or mitigating influenza outbreaks. Yet, vaccine supplies and daily administration capacities are limited, even in developed countries. Understanding how such constraints can

Background: Influenza viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Vaccination remains a powerful tool for preventing or mitigating influenza outbreaks. Yet, vaccine supplies and daily administration capacities are limited, even in developed countries. Understanding how such constraints can alter the mitigating effects of vaccination is a crucial part of influenza preparedness plans. Mathematical models provide tools for government and medical officials to assess the impact of different vaccination strategies and plan accordingly. However, many existing models of vaccination employ several questionable assumptions, including a rate of vaccination proportional to the population at each point in time.

Methods: We present a SIR-like model that explicitly takes into account vaccine supply and the number of vaccines administered per day and places data-informed limits on these parameters. We refer to this as the non-proportional model of vaccination and compare it to the proportional scheme typically found in the literature.

Results: The proportional and non-proportional models behave similarly for a few different vaccination scenarios. However, there are parameter regimes involving the vaccination campaign duration and daily supply limit for which the non-proportional model predicts smaller epidemics that peak later, but may last longer, than those of the proportional model. We also use the non-proportional model to predict the mitigating effects of variably timed vaccination campaigns for different levels of vaccination coverage, using specific constraints on daily administration capacity.

Conclusions: The non-proportional model of vaccination is a theoretical improvement that provides more accurate predictions of the mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks than the proportional model. In addition, parameters such as vaccine supply and daily administration limit can be easily adjusted to simulate conditions in developed and developing nations with a wide variety of financial and medical resources. Finally, the model can be used by government and medical officials to create customized pandemic preparedness plans based on the supply and administration constraints of specific communities.

Date Created
2011-08-01

Solvable time-dependent models in quantum mechanics

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In the traditional setting of quantum mechanics, the Hamiltonian operator does not depend on time. While some Schrödinger equations with time-dependent Hamiltonians have been solved, explicitly solvable cases are typically scarce. This thesis is a collection of papers in which

In the traditional setting of quantum mechanics, the Hamiltonian operator does not depend on time. While some Schrödinger equations with time-dependent Hamiltonians have been solved, explicitly solvable cases are typically scarce. This thesis is a collection of papers in which this first author along with Suslov, Suazo, and Lopez, has worked on solving a series of Schrödinger equations with a time-dependent quadratic Hamiltonian that has applications in problems of quantum electrodynamics, lasers, quantum devices such as quantum dots, and external varying fields. In particular the author discusses a new completely integrable case of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation in R^n with variable coefficients for a modified oscillator, which is dual with respect to the time inversion to a model of the quantum oscillator considered by Meiler, Cordero-Soto, and Suslov. A second pair of dual Hamiltonians is found in the momentum representation. Our examples show that in mathematical physics and quantum mechanics a change in the direction of time may require a total change of the system dynamics in order to return the system back to its original quantum state. The author also considers several models of the damped oscillators in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics in a framework of a general approach to the dynamics of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation with variable quadratic Hamiltonians. The Green functions are explicitly found in terms of elementary functions and the corresponding gauge transformations are discussed. The factorization technique is applied to the case of a shifted harmonic oscillator. The time-evolution of the expectation values of the energy related operators is determined for two models of the quantum damped oscillators under consideration. The classical equations of motion for the damped oscillations are derived for the corresponding expectation values of the position operator. Finally, the author constructs integrals of motion for several models of the quantum damped oscillators in a framework of a general approach to the time-dependent Schrödinger equation with variable quadratic Hamiltonians. An extension of the Lewis-Riesenfeld dynamical invariant is given. The time-evolution of the expectation values of the energy related positive operators is determined for the oscillators under consideration. A proof of uniqueness of the corresponding Cauchy initial value problem is discussed as an application.
Date Created
2011
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