Advances in Local Multiscale Modeling in a Regression Framework

171899-Thumbnail Image.png
Description

Embedded within the regression framework, local models can estimate conditioned relationships between observed spatial phenomena and hypothesized explanatory variables and help infer the intangible spatial processes that contribute to the observed spatial patterns. Rather than investigating averaged characteristics corresponding to

Embedded within the regression framework, local models can estimate conditioned relationships between observed spatial phenomena and hypothesized explanatory variables and help infer the intangible spatial processes that contribute to the observed spatial patterns. Rather than investigating averaged characteristics corresponding to processes over space as global models do, these models estimate a surface of spatially varying parameters with a value for each location. Additionally, some models such as variants within the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) framework, also estimate a parameter to represent the spatial scale across which the processes vary representing the inherent heterogeneity of the estimated surfaces. Since different processes tend to operate at unique spatial scales, some extensions to local models such as Multiscale GWR (MGWR) estimate unique scales of association for each predictor in a model and generate significantly more information on the nature of geographic processes than their predecessors. However, developments within the realm of local models are fairly nascent and hence an understanding around their correct application as well as recognizing their true potential in exploring fundamental spatial science issues is under-developed. The techniques within these frameworks are also currently limited thus restricting the kinds of data that can be analyzed using these models. Therefore the goal of this dissertation is to advance techniques within local multiscale modeling specifically by coining new diagnostics, exploring their novel application in understanding long-standing issues concerning spatial scale and by expanding the tool base to allow their use in wider empirical applications. This goal is realized through three distinct research objectives over four chapters, followed by a discussion on the future of the developments within local multiscale modeling. A correct understanding of the capability and promise of local multiscale models and expanding the fields where they can be employed will not only enhance geographical research by strengthening the intuition of the nature of geographic processes, but will also exemplify the importance and need for using such tools bringing quantitative spatial science to the fore.

Date Created
2022
Agent

A High-resolution Recalculation of the Wildland Urban Interface Reveals Over $1 Trillion of California’s Residential Structures Are at Risk to Wildfire

171506-Thumbnail Image.png
Description
Wildfire is a significant risk to property and people in the state of California. In 2018 alone, California's wildfire damages were estimated to be $148.5 Billion or 1.5% of the state's gross domestic product. Wildfire risks to property and people

Wildfire is a significant risk to property and people in the state of California. In 2018 alone, California's wildfire damages were estimated to be $148.5 Billion or 1.5% of the state's gross domestic product. Wildfire risks to property and people are at their highest at the intersection of flammable wildland vegetation and the built environment, a space called the Wildland Urban Interface or “WUI”. Existing methods for delineating the WUI, however, tend to be coarse in both spatial and temporal resolution, resulting in less precise estimates of WUI extent and change. This thesis uses high-resolution spatio-temporal data and classification methods to remap the WUI in California and to reassess the risk of residents and homes to wildfire. The findings from this analysis reveal that approximately $1.34 Trillion or 40% of the improved residential property value in the state falls within high wildfire risk areas. Likewise, areas classified as WUI account for over 10% of California's land area or a total of 43,205 square kilometers. While WUI areas cover a considerable portion of the state, the addition of a temporal element in this research shows WUI growth in California has slowed considerably over the past 10 years. The unique structure-level data integration strategy applied in this thesis provides a streamlined and expandable process for monitoring the WUI, enabling these new estimates of the hazard risk profiles of areas, structures, and people.
Date Created
2022
Agent