What causes social systems to resist change? Studies of the emergence of social complexity in archaeology have focused primarily on drivers of change with much less emphasis on drivers of stability. Social stability, or the persistence of social systems, is an essential feature without which human society is not possible. By combining quantitative modeling (Exponential Random Graph Modeling) and the comparative archaeological record where the social system is represented by networks of relations between settlements, this research tests several hypotheses about social and geographic drivers of social stability with an explicit focus on a better understanding of contexts and processes that resist change. The Valencian Bronze Age in eastern Spain along the Mediterranean, where prior research appears to indicate little, regional social change for 700 years, serves as a case study.

The results suggest that social stability depends on a society’s ability to integrate change and promote interdependency. In part, this ability is constrained or promoted by social structure and the different, relationship dependencies among individuals that lead to a particular social structure. Four elements are important to constraining or promoting social stability—structural cohesion, transitivity and social dependency, geographic isolation, and types of exchange. Through the framework provided in this research, an archaeologist can recognize patterns in the archaeological data that reflect and promote social stability, or lead to collapse.

Results based on comparisons between the social networks of the Northern and Southern regions of the Valencian Bronze Age show that the Southern Region’s social structure was less stable through time. The Southern Region’s social structure consisted of competing cores of exchange. This type of competition often leads to power imbalances, conflict, and instability. Strong dependencies on the neighboring Argaric during the Early and Middle Bronze Ages and contributed to the Southern Region’s inability to maintain social stability after the Argaric collapsed. Furthermore, the Southern Region participated in the exchange of more complex technology—bronze. Complex technologies produce networks with hub and spoke structures highly vulnerable to collapse after the destruction of a hub. The Northern Region’s social structure remained structurally cohesive through time, promoting social stability.

This dissertation uses a comparative approach to investigate long-term human- environment interrelationships in times of climate change. It uses Geographical Information Systems and ecological models to reconstruct the Magdalenian (~20,000- 14,000 calibrated years ago) environments of the coastal mountainous zone of Cantabria (Northwest Spain) and the interior valleys of the Dordogne (Southwest France) to contextualize the social networks that could have formed during a time of high climate and resource variability. It simulates the formation of such networks in an agent-based model, which documents the processes underlying the formation of archaeological assemblages, and evaluates the potential impacts of climate-topography interactions on cultural transmission. This research then reconstructs the Magdalenian social networks visible through a multivariate statistical analysis of stylistic similarities among portable art objects. As these networks cannot be analyzed directly to infer social behavior, their characteristics are compared to the results of the agent-based model, which provide characteristics estimates of the Magdalenian latent social networks that most likely produced the empirical archaeological assemblage studied.

This research contributes several new results, most of which point to the advantages of using an inter-disciplinary approach to the study of the archaeological record. It demonstrates the benefits of using an agent-based model to parse social data from long- term palimpsests. It shows that geographical and environmental contexts affect the structure of social networks, which in turn affects the transmission of ideas and goods that flow through it. This shows the presence of human-environment interactions that not only affected our ancestors’ reaction to resource insecurities, but also led them to innovate and improve the productivity of their own environment. However, it also suggests that such alterations may have reduced the populations’ resilience to strong climatic changes, and that the region with diverse resources provided a more stable and resilient environment than the region transformed to satisfy the immediate needs of its population.

This dissertation examines the various factors and processes that have been proposed as explanations for the spread of agriculture in the west Mediterranean. The expansion of the Neolithic in the west Mediterranean (the Impresso-Cardial Neolithic) is characterized by a rapid spread of agricultural subsistence and material culture from the southern portion of the Italian peninsula to the western coast of the Iberian peninsula. To address this unique case, four conceptual models of Neolithic spread have been proposed: the Wave of Advance, the Capillary Spread Model, the Maritime Pioneer Colonization Model and the Dual Model. An agent-based model, the Cardial Spread Model, was built to simulate each conceptual spread model in a spatially explicit environment for comparison with evidence from the archaeological record. Chronological information detailing the arrival of the Neolithic was used to create a map of the initial arrival of the Neolithic (a chronosurface) throughout the study area. The results of each conceptual spread model were then compared to the chronosurface in order to evaluate the relative performance of each conceptual model of spread. These experiments suggest that both the Dual and Maritime Pioneer Colonization models best fit the available chronological and spatial distribution of the Impresso-Cardial Neolithic.

For the purpose of informing agent movement and improving the fit of the conceptual spread models, a variety of paleoenvironmental maps were tested within the Cardial Spread Model. The outcome of these experiments suggests that topographic slope was an important factor in settlement location and that rivers were important vectors of transportation for early Neolithic migration. This research demonstrates the application of techniques rare to archaeological analysis, agent-based modeling and the inclusion of paleoenvironmental information, and provides a valuable tool that future researchers can utilize to further evaluate and fabricate new models of Neolithic expansion.