Die-off of screwbean mesquite (Prosopis pubescens), a species native to the American Southwest, has been documented regionally within the last decade. Historical causes for episodic mortality of the more widely distributed velvet mesquite (Prosopis velutina) and honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) include water table declines and flood scour. Causes of the recent die-offs of P. pubescens have received little study. Numerous riparian restoration projects have been implemented regionally that include screwbean mesquite. Restoration propagules from foreign sources can introduce diseases, and low genetic diversity plantings may allow for disease irruptions. I asked: 1) Are die-offs associated with a particular age class, 2) Is die-off suggestive of a pathogen or related to specific environmental stressors, 3) Are mortality influences and outcomes the same between restoration and local populations, 4) Are particular land uses and management associated with die-off, and 5) Are populations rebounding or keeping pace with mortality?

I documented the screwbean mesquite population status at rivers and wetlands in Arizona with varying levels of restoration. I used logistic regression and Pearson correlation analysis to explore mortality response to site factors and disease related variables. I compared mortality response and disease severity between local and restoration populations.

Biotic damage surfaced as the most important factor in statistical analyses, suggesting that mortality was caused by a pathogen. Mortality was greatest for young size classes (3 to 14 cm), and biotic damage was higher for individuals at infrequently flooded areas. Strong differences were not found between local and restoration populations – however restoration populations were less stressed and had lower biotic damage. Novel urban and restored sites may provide refuge as site conditions at other locations deteriorate. A culmination of past water diversion, development and land use may be surfacing, rendering riparian species vulnerable to diseases and triggering such events as region-wide die-off.