This investigation focuses on the development of uncertainty modeling methods applicable to both the structural and thermal models of heated structures as part of an effort to enable the design under uncertainty of hypersonic vehicles. The maximum entropy-based nonparametric stochastic modeling approach is used within the context of coupled structural-thermal Reduced Order Models (ROMs). Not only does this strategy allow for a computationally efficient generation of samples of the structural and thermal responses but the maximum entropy approach allows to introduce both aleatoric and some epistemic uncertainty into the system.

While the nonparametric approach has a long history of applications to structural models, the present investigation was the first one to consider it for the heat conduction problem. In this process, it was recognized that the nonparametric approach had to be modified to maintain the localization of the temperature near the heat source, which was successfully achieved.

The introduction of uncertainty in coupled structural-thermal ROMs of heated structures was addressed next. It was first recognized that the structural stiffness coefficients (linear, quadratic, and cubic) and the parameters quantifying the effects of the temperature distribution on the structural response can be regrouped into a matrix that is symmetric and positive definite. The nonparametric approach was then applied to this matrix allowing the assessment of the effects of uncertainty on the resulting temperature distributions and structural response.

The third part of this document focuses on introducing uncertainty using the Maximum Entropy Method at the level of finite element by randomizing elemental matrices, for instance, elemental stiffness, mass and conductance matrices. This approach brings some epistemic uncertainty not present in the parametric approach (e.g., by randomizing the elasticity tensor) while retaining more local character than the operation in ROM level.

The last part of this document focuses on the development of “reduced ROMs” (RROMs) which are reduced order models with small bases constructed in a data-driven process from a “full” ROM with a much larger basis. The development of the RROM methodology is motivated by the desire to optimally reduce the computational cost especially in multi-physics situations where a lack of prior understanding/knowledge of the solution typically leads to the selection of ROM bases that are excessively broad to ensure the necessary accuracy in representing the response. It is additionally emphasized that the ROM reduction process can be carried out adaptively, i.e., differently over different ranges of loading conditions.

Recent studies of the occurrence of post-flutter limit cycle oscillations (LCO) of the F-16 have provided good support to the long-standing hypothesis that this phenomenon involves a nonlinear structural damping. A potential mechanism for the appearance of nonlinearity in the damping are the nonlinear geometric effects that arise when the deformations become large enough to exceed the linear regime. In this light, the focus of this investigation is first on extending nonlinear reduced order modeling (ROM) methods to include viscoelasticity which is introduced here through a linear Kelvin-Voigt model in the undeformed configuration. Proceeding with a Galerkin approach, the ROM governing equations of motion are obtained and are found to be of a generalized van der Pol-Duffing form with parameters depending on the structure and the chosen basis functions. An identification approach of the nonlinear damping parameters is next proposed which is applicable to structures modeled within commercial finite element software.

The effects of this nonlinear damping mechanism on the post-flutter response is next analyzed on the Goland wing through time-marching of the aeroelastic equations comprising a rational fraction approximation of the linear aerodynamic forces. It is indeed found that the nonlinearity in the damping can stabilize the unstable aerodynamics and lead to finite amplitude limit cycle oscillations even when the stiffness related nonlinear geometric effects are neglected. The incorporation of these latter effects in the model is found to further decrease the amplitude of LCO even though the dominant bending motions do not seem to stiffen as the level of displacements is increased in static analyses.