Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both ‘ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat.

To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant ‘conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (F[subscript ST] = 0.82) and small sizes (2N[subscript ef] = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.

Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., ‘short range endemics,’ SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (N_b = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07km²) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female<male) and life history stages (juvenile<adult) while a steadily declining population trajectory (r = -0.20±0.03) underscores the shallow predicted-time-to-extinction (17.09±2.05 years). Core habitat is receding upwards in elevation and will shift 750km NW under conservative climate estimates. While survival is significantly impacted by wildfire at upper elevations, the extinction vortex is driven by small population demographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus), a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for the eventual climate-driven collapse of the Madrean pine-oak ecosystem, one of Earth’s three recognized megadiversity centers.