Studying, Teaching and Applying Sustainability Visions Using Systems Modeling

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The objective of articulating sustainability visions through modeling is to enhance the outcomes and process of visioning in order to successfully move the system toward a desired state. Models emphasize approaches to develop visions that are viable and resilient and

The objective of articulating sustainability visions through modeling is to enhance the outcomes and process of visioning in order to successfully move the system toward a desired state. Models emphasize approaches to develop visions that are viable and resilient and are crafted to adhere to sustainability principles. This approach is largely assembled from visioning processes (resulting in descriptions of desirable future states generated from stakeholder values and preferences) and participatory modeling processes (resulting in systems-based representations of future states co-produced by experts and stakeholders). Vision modeling is distinct from normative scenarios and backcasting processes in that the structure and function of the future desirable state is explicitly articulated as a systems model. Crafting, representing and evaluating the future desirable state as a systems model in participatory settings is intended to support compliance with sustainability visioning quality criteria (visionary, sustainable, systemic, coherent, plausible, tangible, relevant, nuanced, motivational and shared) in order to develop rigorous and operationalizable visions. We provide two empirical examples to demonstrate the incorporation of vision modeling in research practice and education settings. In both settings, vision modeling was used to develop, represent, simulate and evaluate future desirable states. This allowed participants to better identify, explore and scrutinize sustainability solutions.

Date Created
2014-07-01
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Addressing sustainability in an entrepreneurship ecosystem: a case study of a social incubator in Mexico

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Over the past few decades, businesses globally have advanced in incorporating the principles of sustainability as they strive to align economic outcomes with growing and complex social and environmental demands and opportunities. This transition is conditioned by the maturity, scale,

Over the past few decades, businesses globally have advanced in incorporating the principles of sustainability as they strive to align economic outcomes with growing and complex social and environmental demands and opportunities. This transition is conditioned by the maturity, scale, and geographical location of a business (among other factors), with particular challenges placed on small enterprises in middle- to low-income communities. Within this context, the overarching research question of this dissertation is why and how business incubation processes may foster sustainable enterprises at the middle and base of the socioeconomic pyramid (MoP/BoP). To explore this question, in this project I used as a case study the experience of a network of social business incubators operated by Tecnologico de Monterrey, a private, non-profit, multi-campus university system in Mexico. Centering on its campus in Guadalajara and in order to understand if and how MoP/BoP businesses address sustainability, I developed a current state assessment of incubator processes, analyzing during two semesters the activities of incubated entrepreneurs and their goals, motivations, and outcomes. The general expectation at the outset of the study was that Tec's social business incubation process, in both its design and implementation, focuses on the economic viability and outcomes of incubated projects and hence does not promote entrepreneur commitment to sustainability goals and practices. The general approach of the research project involved a qualitative, in-depth ethnographic assessment of participants. Data were collected by means of the following research tools: (a) archival and documentary review, (b) participant observation, (c) surveys of participants (entrepreneurs and advisors/mentors), and (d) semi-structured interviews of participants. The overall design of the research was inspired by the transitions management approach and by the intervention research method, while qualitative results were assessed under the grounded theory approach. Results of the research are reported under three general categories: (a) analysis of entrepreneur goals, motivations, and outcomes, (b) identification of social and environmental opportunities, and (c) review of the role of social networks and broader support structures. While results confirmed the general expectation of the study, it was possible to establish (based on the interaction with the entrepreneurs and other actors) that there is both interest and commitment to identify and explore opportunities in social and environmental issues. Thus, the dissertation concludes with a proposal for potential future interventions in this social incubator, exploring a new vision and strategies for a transition to a more sustainability-oriented approach. Finally, key recommendations define the most critical elements of an agenda for transition in the social incubation process at Campus Guadalajara and provide input for other efforts.
Date Created
2014
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Political economic barriers to global change adaptations: a study of agrarian rural development in northwest Costa Rica

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This is a study of the plight of smallholder agriculture in Northwest Costa Rica. More specifically, this is the story of 689 rice farms, of an average size of 7.2 hectares and totaling just less than 5,300 hectares within the

This is a study of the plight of smallholder agriculture in Northwest Costa Rica. More specifically, this is the story of 689 rice farms, of an average size of 7.2 hectares and totaling just less than 5,300 hectares within the largest agricultural irrigation system in Central America. I was able to define the physical bounds of this study quite clearly, but one would be mistaken to think that this simplicity transfers to a search for rural development solutions in this case. Those solutions lie in the national and international politics that appear to have allowed a select few to pick winners and losers in Costa Rican agriculture in the face of global changes. In this research, I found that water scarcity among smallholder farms between 2006 and 2013 was the product of the adaptations of other, more powerful actors in 2002 to threats of Costa Rica's ratification of the Central American Free Trade Agreement. I demonstrate how the adaptations of these more powerful actors produced new risks for others, and how this ultimately prevented the rural development program from meeting its development goals. I reflect on my case study to draw conclusions about the different ways risks may emerge in rural development programs of this type. Then, I focus on the household level and show that determinants of successful adaptation to one type of global change risk may make farmers more vulnerable to other types, creating a "catch-22" among vulnerable farmers adapting to multiple global change risks. Finally, I define adaptation limits in smallholder rice farming in Northwest Costa Rica. I show that the abandonment of livelihood security and well-being, and of the unique "parcelaro" identities of rice farmers in this region define adaptation limits in this context.
Date Created
2014
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Toward sustainable governance of water resources: the case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica

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Research shows that many water governance regimes are failing to guide social-ecological systems away from points, beyond which, damage to social and environmental well-being will be difficult to correct. This problem is apparent in regions that face water conflicts and

Research shows that many water governance regimes are failing to guide social-ecological systems away from points, beyond which, damage to social and environmental well-being will be difficult to correct. This problem is apparent in regions that face water conflicts and climate threats. There remains a need to clarify what is it about governance that people need to change in water conflict prone regions, how to collectively go about doing that, and how research can actively support this. To address these needs, here I present a collaborative research project from the dry tropics of Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica. The project addressed the overarching questions: How can water be governed sustainably in water-contested and climate-threatened regions? And, how can people transition current water governance regimes toward more sustainable ones? In pursuit of these questions, a series of individual studies were performed with many partners and collaborators. These studies included: a participatory analysis and sustainability assessment of current water governance regimes; a case analysis and comparison of water conflicts; constructing alternative governance scenarios; and, developing governance transition strategies. Results highlight the need for water governance that addresses asymmetrical knowledge gaps especially concerning groundwater resources, reconciles disenfranchised groups, and supports local leaders. Yet, actions taken based on these initial results, despite some success influencing policy, found substantial challenges confronting them. In-depth conflict investigations, for example, found that deeply rooted issues such friction between opposing local-based and national institutions were key conflict drivers in the region. To begin addressing these issues, researchers and stakeholders then constructed a set of governing alternatives and devised governance transition strategies that could actively support people to achieve more sustainable alternatives and avoid less sustainable ones. These efforts yielded insight into the collective actions needed to implement more sustainable water governance regimes, including ways to overcoming barriers that drive harmful water conflicts. Actions based on these initial strategies yielded further opportunities, challenges, and lessons. Overall, the project addresses the research and policy gap between identifying what is sustainable water governance and understanding the strategies needed to implement it successfully in regions that experience water conflict and climate impacts.
Date Created
2014
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Quenching our thirst for future knowledge: participatory scenario construction and sustainable water governance in a desert city

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Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of

Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of Central Arizona. A sustainability transition is the local water system is necessary to overcome sustainability challenges and scenarios can be used to explore plausible and desirable futures to inform a transition, but this requires some methodological refinements. This dissertation refines scenario methodology to generate water governance scenarios for metropolitan Phoenix that: (i) feature enhanced stakeholder participation; (ii) incorporate normative values and preferences; (iii) focus on governance actors and their activities; and (iv) meet an expanded set of quality criteria. The first study in the dissertation analyzes and evaluates participatory climate change scenarios to provide recommendations for the construction and use of scenarios that advance climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. The second study proposes and tests a set of plausibility indications to substantiate or evaluate claims that scenarios and future projections could become reality, helping to establish the legitimacy of radically different or transformative scenarios among an extended peer community. The case study of water governance begins with the third study, which includes a current state analysis and sustainability appraisal of the Phoenix-area water system. This is followed by a fourth study which surveys Phoenix-area water decision-makers to better understand water-related preferences for use in scenario construction. The fifth and final study applies a multi-method approach to construct future scenarios of water governance in metropolitan Phoenix in 2030 using stakeholder preferences, among other normative frames, and testing systemic impacts with WaterSim 5.0, a dynamic simulation model of water in the region. The scenarios are boundary objects around which stakeholders can weigh tradeoffs, set priorities and reflect on impacts of water-related activities, broadening policy dialogues around water governance in central Arizona. Together the five studies advance transformational sustainability research by refining methods to engage stakeholders in crafting futures that define how individuals and institutions should operate in transformed and sustainable systems.
Date Created
2014
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Visioning in urban planning: a critical review and synthesis

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Description
Planners are often involved in the development of 'visions' for specific projects or larger plans. These visions often serve as guideposts for more specific plans or projects and the visioning process is important for involving community members into the planning

Planners are often involved in the development of 'visions' for specific projects or larger plans. These visions often serve as guideposts for more specific plans or projects and the visioning process is important for involving community members into the planning process. This paper provides a review of the recent literature published about visioning and is intended to provide guidance for visioning activities in planning projects. I use the general term "vision" in reference to a desirable state in the future. The body of academic literature on visioning in planning has been growing over the last decade. However, the planning literature on visioning is diverse and dispersed, posing various challenges to researchers and planners seeking guidance for their own planning (research) activities. For one, relevant articles on visioning are scattered over different strands of literature ranging from traditional planning literature (Journal of the American Planning Association, Planning Practice and Research, etc.) to less traditional and intuitive sources (Futures, Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology). Further, some of them not easily identifiable and may not be openly accessible via the Internet. Thus, our review intends to help collect and synthesize this literature and begin to provide guidance for the future of visioning in the field of planning. I do this by compiling visioning literature from different strands of the planning literature, synthesizing key insights into visioning in (urban) planning, undertaking exemplary appraisals of visioning approaches in planning against quality criteria, and deriving conclusions for visioning research and practice. From this review, I highlight areas of opportunity and ways forward in order to make visioning more effective and more influential for the future of communities throughout the world.
Date Created
2013
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Crafting sustainability visions: integrating visioning practice, research, and education

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Description
Sustainability visioning (i.e. the construction of sustainable future states) is considered an important component of sustainability research, for instance, in transformational sustainability science or in planning for urban sustainability. Visioning frees sustainability research from the dominant focus on analyzing problem

Sustainability visioning (i.e. the construction of sustainable future states) is considered an important component of sustainability research, for instance, in transformational sustainability science or in planning for urban sustainability. Visioning frees sustainability research from the dominant focus on analyzing problem constellations and opens it towards positive contributions to social innovation and transformation. Calls are repeatedly made for visions that can guide us towards sustainable futures. Scattered across a broad range of fields (i.e. business, non-government organization, land-use management, natural resource management, sustainability science, urban and regional planning) are an abundance of visioning studies. However, among the few evaluative studies in the literature there are apparent deficits in both the research and practice of visioning that curtails our expectations and prospects of realizing process-based and product-derived outcomes. These deficits suggests that calls instead should focus on the development of applied and theoretical understanding of crafting sustainability visions, enhancing the rigor and robustness of visioning methodology, and on integrating practice, research, and education for collaborative sustainability visioning. From an analysis of prominent visioning and sustainability visioning studies in the literature, this dissertation articulates what is sustainability visioning and synthesizes a conceptual framework for criteria-based design and evaluation of sustainability visioning studies. While current visioning methodologies comply with some of these guidelines, none adhere to all of them. From this research, a novel sustainability visioning methodology is designed to address this gap to craft visions that are shared, systemic, principles-based, action-oriented, relevant, and creative (i.e. SPARC visioning methodology) and evaluated across all quality criteria. Empirical studies were conducted to test and apply the conceptual and methodological frameworks -- with an emphasis on enhancing the rigor and robustness in real world visioning processes for urban planning and teaching sustainability competencies. In-depth descriptions of the collaborative visioning studies demonstrate tangible outcomes for: (a) implementing the above sustainability visioning methodology, including evaluative procedures; (b) adopting meaningful interactive engagement procedures; (c) integrating advanced analytical modeling, sustainability appraisal, and creativity enhancing procedures; and (d) developing perspective and methodological capacity for long-range sustainability planning.
Date Created
2013
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A method for sustainability appraisal of urban visions

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Description
Over the last two decades programs and mandates to encourage and foster sustainable urban development have arisen throughout the world, as cities have emerged as key opportunity sites for sustainable development due to the compactness and localization of services and

Over the last two decades programs and mandates to encourage and foster sustainable urban development have arisen throughout the world, as cities have emerged as key opportunity sites for sustainable development due to the compactness and localization of services and resources. In order to recognize this potential, scholars and practitioners have turned to the practice of visioning as a way to motivate actions and decision making toward a sustainable future. A "vision" is defined as desirable state in the future and scholars believe that the creation of a shared, motivational vision is the best starting point to catalyze positive and sustainable change. However, recent studies on city visions indicate that they do not offer substantive sustainability content, and methods or processes to evaluate the sustainability content of the resulting vision (sustainability appraisal or assessment) are often absent from the visioning process. Thus, this paper explores methods for sustainability appraisal and their potential contributions to (and in) visioning. The goal is to uncover the elements of a robust sustainability appraisal and integrate them into the visioning process. I propose an integrated sustainability appraisal procedure based on sustainability criteria, indicators, and targets as part of a visioning methodology that was developed by a team of researchers at Arizona State University (ASU) of which I was a part. I demonstrate the applicability of the appraisal method in a case study of visioning in Phoenix, Arizona. The proposed method allows for early and frequent consideration and evaluation of sustainability objectives for urban development throughout the visioning process and will result in more sustainability-oriented visions. Further, it can allow for better measurement and monitoring of progress towards sustainability goals, which can make the goals more tangible and lead to more accountability for making progress towards the development of more sustainable cities in the future.
Date Created
2013
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Toward sustainable anticipatory governance: analyzing and assessing nanotechnology innovation processes

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Description
Cities around the globe struggle with socio-economic disparities, resource inefficiency, environmental contamination, and quality-of-life challenges. Technological innovation, as one prominent approach to problem solving, promises to address these challenges; yet, introducing new technologies, such as nanotechnology, into society and cities

Cities around the globe struggle with socio-economic disparities, resource inefficiency, environmental contamination, and quality-of-life challenges. Technological innovation, as one prominent approach to problem solving, promises to address these challenges; yet, introducing new technologies, such as nanotechnology, into society and cities has often resulted in negative consequences. Recent research has conceptually linked anticipatory governance and sustainability science: to understand the role of technology in complex problems our societies face; to anticipate negative consequences of technological innovation; and to promote long-term oriented and responsible governance of technologies. This dissertation advances this link conceptually and empirically, focusing on nanotechnology and urban sustainability challenges. The guiding question for this dissertation research is: How can nanotechnology be innovated and governed in responsible ways and with sustainable outcomes? The dissertation: analyzes the nanotechnology innovation process from an actor- and activities-oriented perspective (Chapter 2); assesses this innovation process from a comprehensive perspective on sustainable governance (Chapter 3); constructs a small set of future scenarios to consider future implications of different nanotechnology governance models (Chapter 4); and appraises the amenability of sustainability problems to nanotechnological interventions (Chapter 5). The four studies are based on data collected through literature review, document analysis, participant observation, interviews, workshops, and walking audits, as part of process analysis, scenario construction, and technology assessment. Research was conducted in collaboration with representatives from industry, government agencies, and civic organizations. The empirical parts of the four studies focus on Metropolitan Phoenix. Findings suggest that: predefined mandates and economic goals dominate the nanotechnology innovation process; normative responsibilities identified by risk governance, sustainability-oriented governance, and anticipatory governance are infrequently considered in the nanotechnology innovation process; different governance models will have major impacts on the role and effects of nanotechnology in cities in the future; and nanotechnologies, currently, do not effectively address the root causes of urban sustainability challenges and require complementary solution approaches. This dissertation contributes to the concepts of anticipatory governance and sustainability science on how to constructively guide nanotechnological innovation in order to harvest its positive potential and safeguard against negative consequences.
Date Created
2013
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Participatory design of a comprehensive playground intervention manual for obesity mitigation in Phoenix, AZ

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Description
In the past three decades alone, the United States has witnessed a dramatic rise in the prevalence of obesity and overweight in adults and children. Efforts towards obesity mitigation and prevention have produced promising recommendations and researchers and practitioners alike

In the past three decades alone, the United States has witnessed a dramatic rise in the prevalence of obesity and overweight in adults and children. Efforts towards obesity mitigation and prevention have produced promising recommendations and researchers and practitioners alike acknowledge that real solutions must match the complexity of the problem. Comprehensive approaches that target environmental, economic, socio-cultural, and knowledge-based factors that influence diet and physical activity are highly recommended. However, the literature yields little in the way of what such comprehensive obesity interventions actually entail and how they ought to be developed. In particular, there are knowledge gaps in how various stakeholder groups can bridge institutional barriers to collaborate in ways that maximize resources, build upon synergies, and avoid duplication of efforts; and how specific recommendations are actually implemented. This thesis aims to contribute to an emerging body of literature that fills this gap by presenting a practical case study on how to create a playground obesity intervention in the Gateway District of Phoenix, Arizona, in collaboration with researchers, health professionals, neighborhood residents, and city officials. The objectives were two-fold: 1. To outline concrete steps that will allow an organization to create a playground linked with healthy kids education program that aims to increase physical activity, perceptions of safety, and community cohesion; 2. To outline how diverse stakeholders can collaborate effectively to create such a cohesive, complex obesity intervention. A detailed, actionable intervention manual was drafted through semi-structured interviews, literature review, a survey, a stakeholder workshop, and an extended peer-review. The manual describes the sequence of actions necessary for creating an innovative playground that reinforces learning, encourages creative play, and increases physical activity. The sequence of actions was linked with existing local assets, stakeholder roles and responsibilities, costs, and potential barriers. This manual, as well as the process itself, can serve as a transferable model for helping organizations come together to build the capacity required in order to tackle complex health challenges.
Date Created
2013
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