Effects of the October 2023 Schedule Changes on On-Time Performance of the Orbit Saturn

This paper details the process of implementing a schedule change for the Orbit Saturn, a neighborhood circulator bus in Tempe with poor on-time performance. It describes the methods used to estimate the true runtimes for the Saturn between timepoints, and measures the effectiveness of a schedule change that allows operators more time to traverse between timepoints. Changes were implemented on October 23, 2023, upon which there was a statistically significant decrease in average deviation from schedule, as well as a significant increase in the proportion of trips classified as “on-time” by Valley Metro. Increased on-time performance does not appear to be due to outside factors, such as seasonal changes in traffic.