Research on Optimization of Cyclical Investment Strategy in Chinese Context

With the ongoing development of China's financial market, the investment choices for investors are gradually enriched. Exploring asset allocation for different economic cycle stages can help investors achieve higher returns from the economic cycle rotation, and at the same time, effectively diversify the investment risks and improve the stability of investment returns. In this paper, we systematically sort out a series of studies on asset allocation and economic cycle theory, and build an economic cycle rotation investment strategy applicable to China's economic environment and changes in China's capital market.Based on China's macroeconomic data and investment asset classes, this paper optimizes the division of economic cycle stages, integrates the economic cycle rotation strategy and risk parity strategy, and incorporates liquidity elements to construct an asset allocation strategy. Specific findings are as follows: (1) this paper uses the "slope" and "threshold" of the year-on-year change of industrial value added to divide the economic output stage, which overcomes the drawbacks of relying on economic cycle indicators that cause frequent changes in cycle stages; (2) the investment strategy developed in the paper is able to obtain considerable investment returns, reduces investment risks, and achieves retracement control. ii The findings of this paper enrich and expand the research on economic cycle theory and asset allocation theory to a certain extent, and also provide some inspiration for the practice of asset allocation.