Risk Identification and Prevention in China’s Guarantee Industry

This study seeks to develop a framework that can help firms in China’s guarantee industry to better identify and prevent risk when they offer guarantee services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). With the continuously increasing demands of SME financing, the guarantee industry has developed rapidly in China. Meanwhile, the turmoil in global financial markets and the significant slowdown of global economy have started to have a negative impact on China’s economy, increasing the risk exposure of China’s guarantee industry. In this context, risk identification and prevention becomes the core competence of a guarantee company. Based on a review of the existing research, two in-depth case studies, and the author’s personal experiences in this industry, this paper does not only provide a comprehensive list of the risks that guarantee firms face in China but also measures for risk identification and prevention.

This thesis is organized as follows. First, I provide a brief description about the emergence and development of China’s guarantee industry, as well as its current status. Next, I explain what kinds of risks faced by guarantee firms in China that influence their performance and survival, and summarize the various external and internal risk factors. I also conduct one in-depth case analysis to illustrate how a guarantee firm can better identify the risks it is exposed to. Next, on the basis of another in-depth case analysis, I develop a framework that can help guarantee firms to systematically develop effective measures of risk identification and prevention. I conclude with a discussion of this study’s implications for guarantee firms and the regulatory governmental agencies in China.