A study of evaluation methods centered on reliability for renewal of aging hydropower plants

Hydropower generation is one of the clean renewable energies which has received great attention in the power industry. Hydropower has been the leading source of renewable energy. It provides more than 86% of all electricity generated by renewable sources worldwide. Generally, the life span of a hydropower plant is considered as 30 to 50 years. Power plants over 30 years old usually conduct a feasibility study of rehabilitation on their entire facilities including infrastructure. By age 35, the forced outage rate increases by 10 percentage points compared to the previous year. Much longer outages occur in power plants older than 20 years. Consequently, the forced outage rate increases exponentially due to these longer outages. Although these long forced outages are not frequent, their impact is immense. If reasonable timing of rehabilitation is missed, an abrupt long-term outage could occur and additional unnecessary repairs and inefficiencies would follow. On the contrary, too early replacement might cause the waste of revenue. The hydropower plants of Korea Water Resources Corporation (hereafter K-water) are utilized for this study. Twenty-four K-water generators comprise the population for quantifying the reliability of each equipment. A facility in a hydropower plant is a repairable system because most failures can be fixed without replacing the entire facility. The fault data of each power plant are collected, within which only forced outage faults are considered as raw data for reliability analyses. The mean cumulative repair functions (MCF) of each facility are determined with the failure data tables, using Nelson's graph method. The power law model, a popular model for a repairable system, can also be obtained to represent representative equipment and system availability. The criterion-based analysis of HydroAmp is used to provide more accurate reliability of each power plant. Two case studies are presented to enhance the understanding of the availability of each power plant and represent economic evaluations for modernization. Also, equipment in a hydropower plant is categorized into two groups based on their reliability for determining modernization timing and their suitable replacement periods are obtained using simulation.