Advanced Modeling and Optimization Techniques for Smart Grids: From Prosumer Behavior to Three-Phase Distribution Systems Analyses

In recent years, the adoption of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in power systems has been increasing, driven by technological advancements, development of monitoring and control techniques, policy guidance among various countries, and the benefits DERs bring to the power system. These benefits include low-cost energy production, environmental sustainability promotion, and enhanced operational efficiency of the power system. For instance, demand response (DR) can alleviate pressure during peak load periods, while solar PV units and wind turbines with smart inverters can improve grid reliability through grid regulation based on IEEE Standard 1547. Despite the opportunities DERs present, their adoption also poses challenges. The growing reliance on renewable sources introduces uncertainty, variability, and intermittency, directly impacting system stability and efficiency. Addressing these challenges necessitates comprehensive research to enhance stability, improve system operations, and maximize resource utilization. This dissertation concentrates on two primary research areas: analyzing prosumer (consumers and producers, as one) consumption behavior and developing AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) models. Firstly, understanding prosumer consumption behavior is important for reducing DERs' uncertainty, particularly DR programs. This study employs a proposed probabilistic algorithm to analyze the causal relationships between prosumer consumption behavior and other factors. Two causal-oriented approaches are utilized to establish accurate prediction models and assess demand flexibility. Causal artificial intelligence facilitates intervention and counterfactual analyses of prosumers’ DR participation and consumption behavior. Finally, a Conditional Hidden Semi-Markov Model (CHSMM) is applied to model and predict household appliance electricity consumption, further enhancing understanding of prosumer behavior. Secondly, the dissertation investigates optimization models for efficient, cost-effective power system operation and resource utilization maximization. A convex two-stage socially-aware and risk-aware Second-Order Cone Programming (SOCP)-based ACOPF model is introduced to mitigate DER uncertainty, enhance PV energy utilization, and reduce operational costs. Additionally, a convex SOCP-based ACOPF model is presented for three-phase unbalanced distribution systems, incorporating the Q-V characteristics of PV units with smart inverters based on IEEE Standard 1547. This model enables the participation of PV units with smart inverters in grid voltage regulation, enhancing power system stability and achieving efficient, cost-effective operation.