Enhancing Community Flood Resilience through Systems Approaches: A Case Study of the Ciliwung River Watershed in Indonesia

Given increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and disparities in socio-economic conditions, managing flood risks has become ever more challenging. Building a community flood resilience becomes an essential strategy to reduce flood risks and achieve sustainable development. However, enhancing community flood resilience presents numerous obstacles and potential downsides. To address such a challenge, this dissertation investigates the interactions among natural, built environment, and actor systems using a case study of flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia, focusing on the Ciliwung river watershed. The study first develops a conceptual framework for community flood resilience by integrating concepts from disaster, flood, and community resilience research to represent how water, structural elements, and actors are connected and can contribute to hazards and vulnerabilities. Building on the framework, the study utilizes a mixed-methods approach, combining stakeholder interviews with network and heatmap analysis to identify the roles and interconnections of relevant actors in Jakarta’s flooding. Next, the study employs a hybrid of agent-based and system dynamics modeling to explore the complex interactions among the watershed’s physical and actor systems. The model evaluates how the level of collaboration among government agencies affects flood management interventions and community resilience under various scenarios concerning weather patterns and land-use change. The research provides an exploratory tool and a strategic guide for enhancing community flood resilience. The stakeholder analysis reveals the complexity of stakeholder relationships and challenges such as imbalance in resource allocation, authority overlap, and low engagement. These insights highlight the need for trust-building, community involvement, and strategic alignment in flood management efforts. Systems modeling to derive policy recommendations bridges the gap between theoretical frameworks and governance challenges, offering empirical evidence of the critical role of governmental collaboration in reducing exposure to floods. The systems modeling results suggest that under conditions of uncertainties, enhancing community flood resilience requires a coordinated approach among stakeholders.