Planning for climate change in US national parks: Assessing the quality of National Park Management Plans

Global climate change, rising average temperatures, rising water levels, irregularities in climate and river regimes, and increasing anthropogenic disturbances pose a significant risk to the ecosystems of protected areas. Given that past conditions are different from future conditions, managing protected areas faces serious challenges. New management approaches and strategies are needed to overcome these challenges. Planners and academicians have established methodologies for assessing the quality of climate change adaptation and resilience plans. However, a similar plan quality evaluation that considers climate change adaptation for National Park General Management Plans has not been conducted. This study adapted that methodology for national park management plans and applied it to analyze National Park General Management Plans across nine United States climate regions. Furthermore, this thesis aims to address this gap by asking and answering the following question: How do existing management plans for national parks meet the principles identified for effective planning for climate change? In this study, national park management plans are evaluated according to 112 criteria across seven principles, allowing for direct comparison and conclusions on strengths and weaknesses. The study revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the plans. Plans generally have similar weak points and strong points. While some aspects, such as public participation and coordination, perform relatively well, there are critical shortcomings in articulating a vision for climate adaptation, addressing uncertainty, and developing detailed strategies and monitoring mechanisms. The study will contribute to a better understanding of how protected areas can prepare for climate change impacts.