Comprehensive Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment for the Beach-Dune Barrier Systems of the Eureka Littoral Cell, Humboldt County, California

Increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) pose a major threat to coastal communities around the world. Evidence of these impacts is found in increased rates of extreme weather, erosion, coastal flooding, high water levels and wave height, altered geomorphology, and more. Coastal dunes act as a buffer for neighboring ecosystems and protect inland communities from increased rates of SLR. The Eureka Littoral Cell (ELC) in Humboldt County, California, which extends from Trinidad Head in the north to Cape Mendocino in the south, experiences extreme wave conditions and higher rates of SLR in comparison to the rest of the Pacific Northwest. This study focuses on assessing the vulnerability of the outer-barrier system of the ELC to SLR and complements previous vulnerability assessments of the inner Humboldt Bay. The study area was partitioned into thirteen (13) representative study reaches based on shoreline change rates and geomorphology. Twenty-two (22) environmental and socio-economic variables were identified to characterize the broader human-environmental connections and exposures that define coastal vulnerability beyond basic physical forcing and exposures. The study first compiled and examined a range of physical, biological, hazardous, socio-cultural, and infrastructure attributes of the outer barrier region of the study site for their inherent vulnerabilities. Second, individual vulnerability scores, based on geographic attributes of each variable, were determined by modifying existing methodologies (e.g., USGS), spanning variable data ranges, and/or with feedback from local representatives and a research advisory team. Aggregations of individual variables were used to provide variable category groupings (e.g., physical, biological, hazards, socio-cultural, and infrastructure). Finally, aggregated values were normalized on a one-to-ten scale to determine two sub-categories of vulnerability (environmental, socio-economic) and an overall comprehensive vulnerability for each study reach. The resulting vulnerability assessments identify which reaches are likely to experience low, moderate, and high levels of vulnerability and, based on variable and sub-grouping values, what factors contribute to this vulnerability. As such, this study addresses the significance of including both environmental and socio-economic variables to examine and characterize vulnerability to SLR and it is anticipated that the results will help inform future adaptation and resilience planning in the region.