The Effect of Covid-19 on Single-Family Home Valuations in Low-Income Tax States

As the 2010’s came to a close, the world was thrust into a new era of panic, flexibility, and hyper growth as a result of COVID-19 (COVID). In an effort to combat this black swan event employers implemented mandatory work from home initiatives to stop the spread of COVID. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve enacted a quantitative easing strategy in the form of low-interest rates accompanied by exhaustive government stimulus in an effort to stabilize the economy from its COVID induced panic. As a result of these factors, the U.S. has observed unique growth trends in population and home prices. This study aims to answer if low-income tax states experienced a larger population growth rate than moderate to high-income tax states from 2020 – 2022 and if low-income tax states experienced a larger increase in single-family home appreciation than moderate to high-income tax states from 2020 – 2022. To answer these questions, the study implemented the strategy of testing historical home pricing data provided by Zillow Research and population data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau through a correlation matrix to measure if there was a correlation and if the correlation P-values were significant. The same data was tested a second time through an index strategy which further confirmed the findings of the correlation matrix. The study found that there was a correlation between the income tax rate and home value appreciation and population growth from 2020 – 2022. As a result, the study concludes that there is enough evidence to infer that tax rates may influence home price appreciation and population growth. However, income tax rates are not solely responsible for the increases in home prices and population, but instead are one of many factors that influence these groups.