Real Estate Investment Trusts and the U.S. Economy: The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and REIT Returns in the U.S.

This thesis investigates the performance of publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the United States (U.S.) and their sensitivity to underlying macroeconomic factors. Specifically, this study employs a quantitative research analysis that utilizes technical, correlation, and regression analyses to identify how different REIT sectors react to changes in economic conditions. Data for the study was collected from publicly available and reliable sources, including the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit) and the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Four areas of research guide the study. First, the study explores the relationship between different REIT property sectors and the underlying causes of similarities and differences in sector performance. Second, the study examines how macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, inflation, and interest rates, affect the performance of publicly traded equity REITs. Third, the study investigates the significance of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and REIT sector performance to assess the varying impact on different property types. Finally, the study explores whether a model can be developed to predict the performance of REIT sectors based on macroeconomic variables. Overall, the findings in this study will provide valuable insights into how REITs across and within property types perform and react to changes in the macroeconomic environment. Furthermore, because real estate represents a significant component of the economy, it can offer investors valuable insights into broader economic trends and conditions, contributing to a better understanding of economic cycles and identifying potential opportunities and risks.