Integrative Computational Immunology: From Molecules to Mortality

Computational models have long been used to describe and predict the outcome of complex immunological processes. The dissertation work described here centers on the construction of multiscale computational immunology models that derives biological insights at the population, systems, and atomistic levels. First, SARS-CoV-2 mortality is investigated through the lens of the predicted robustness of CD8+ T cell responses in 23 different populations. The robustness of CD8+ T cell responses in a given population was modeled by predicting the efficiency of endemic MHC-I protein variants to present peptides derived from SARS-CoV-2 proteins to circulating T cells. To accomplish this task, an algorithm, called EnsembleMHC, was developed to predict viral peptides with a high probability of being recognized by CD T cells. It was discovered that there was significant variation in the efficiency of different MHC-I protein variants to present SARS-CoV-2 derived peptides, and countries enriched with variants with high presentation efficiency had significantly lower mortality rates. Second, a biophysics-based MHC-I peptide prediction algorithm was developed. The MHC-I protein is the most polymorphic protein in the human genome with polymorphisms in the peptide binding causing striking changes in the amino acid compositions, or binding motifs, of peptide species capable of stable binding. A deep learning model, coined HLA-Inception, was trained to predict peptide binding using only biophysical properties, namely electrostatic potential. HLA-Inception was shown to be extremely accurate and efficient at predicting peptide binding motifs and was used to determine the peptide binding motifs of 5,821 MHC-I protein variants. Finally, the impact of stalk glycosylations on NL63 protein dynamics was investigated. Previous data has shown that coronavirus crown glycans play an important role in immune evasion and receptor binding, however, little is known about the role of the stalk glycans. Through the integration of computational biology, experimental data, and physics-based simulations, the stalk glycans were shown to heavily influence the bending angle of spike protein, with a particular emphasis on the glycan at position 1242. Further investigation revealed that removal of the N1242 glycan significantly reduced infectivity, highlighting a new potential therapeutic target. Overall, these investigations and associated innovations in integrative modeling.