Uncertainty Quantification and Prognostics using Bayesian Statistics and Machine Learning

Uncertainty quantification is critical for engineering design and analysis. Determining appropriate ways of dealing with uncertainties has been a constant challenge in engineering. Statistical methods provide a powerful aid to describe and understand uncertainties. This work focuses on applying Bayesian methods and machine learning in uncertainty quantification and prognostics among all the statistical methods. This study focuses on the mechanical properties of materials, both static and fatigue, the main engineering field on which this study focuses. This work can be summarized in the following items: First, maintaining the safety of vintage pipelines requires accurately estimating the strength. The objective is to predict the reliability-based strength using nondestructive multimodality surface information. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is implemented for fusing multimodality non-destructive testing results for gas pipeline strength estimation. Several incremental improvements are proposed in the algorithm implementation. Second, the objective is to develop a statistical uncertainty quantification method for fatigue stress-life (S-N) curves with sparse data.Hierarchical Bayesian data augmentation (HBDA) is proposed to integrate hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) and Bayesian data augmentation (BDA) to deal with sparse data problems for fatigue S-N curves. The third objective is to develop a physics-guided machine learning model to overcome limitations in parametric regression models and classical machine learning models for fatigue data analysis. A Probabilistic Physics-guided Neural Network (PPgNN) is proposed for probabilistic fatigue S-N curve estimation. This model is further developed for missing data and arbitrary output distribution problems. Fourth, multi-fidelity modeling combines the advantages of low- and high-fidelity models to achieve a required accuracy at a reasonable computation cost. The fourth objective is to develop a neural network approach for multi-fidelity modeling by learning the correlation between low- and high-fidelity models. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and future work is outlined based on the current study.