Contract Year's Effects on NBA Salary Caps and What Statistics Can Identify These Players

The National Basketball Association is one of the most popular and most profitable sports leagues in the entire world, and with stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokić, and Luka Dončić, it continues to expand its international reach. In the past decade this has meant that the salary cap has continued to increase considerably. From 2013 to 2017 the salary cap increased by about $40.5 million from around $58.5 million to $99 million meaning there was an extra $1.2 billion worth of cap space to fill. All this new cap space created a perfect storm for numerous players to be overpaid. Many saw the performance of these overpaid players as a part of the contract year phenomenon where a player performs better before a new contract and then after receiving their new contract, their performance deteriorates. The purpose of this research is twofold. First, it looks at whether the contract year phenomenon has been present in the NBA since 2015. After that it looks to find what statistics are the best predictors for performance based on their positions. This was done through various statistical analysis techniques such as T-tests and piecewise regression. Box score statistics like point, rebounds, and assists as well as advanced metrics like player efficiency rating, usage percentage, and true shooting percentage were utilized in this study. The results indicated that the concept of the contract year phenomenon was present in the players sampled. However, rather than contract year only being for players who increased their performance in the previous year, it is a more general phenomenon. Also, there was major differences in the statistics that predicted performance. The biggest of these was the importance of usage percentage rather than points and that centers had the least predictors, most likely due to the evolution in the play of centers.