Early Detection of At-Risk Students Using LMS Data

Calculus as a math course is important subject students need to succeed in, in order to venture into STEM majors. This thesis focuses on the early detection of at-risk students in a calculus course which can provide the proper intervention that might help them succeed in the course. Calculus has high failure rates which corroborates with the data collected from Arizona State University that shows that 40% of the 3266 students whose data were used failed in their calculus course.This thesis proposes to utilize educational big data to detect students at high risk of failure and their eventual early detection and subsequent intervention can be useful. Some existing studies similar to this thesis make use of open-scale data that are lower in data count and perform predictions on low-impact Massive Open Online Courses(MOOC) based courses. In this thesis, an automatic detection method of academically at-risk students by using learning management systems(LMS) activity data along with the student information system(SIS) data from Arizona State University(ASU) for the course calculus for engineers I (MAT 265) is developed. The method will detect students at risk by employing machine learning to identify key features that contribute to the success of a student. This thesis also proposes a new technique to convert this button click data into a button click sequence which can be used as inputs to classifiers. In addition, the advancements in Natural Language Processing field can be used by adopting methods such as part-of-speech (POS) tagging and tools such as Facebook Fasttext word embeddings to convert these button click sequences into numeric vectors before feeding them into the classifiers. The thesis proposes two preprocessing techniques and evaluates them on 3 different machine learning ensembles to determine their performance across the two modalities of the class.