A Hacker-Centric Perspective to Empower Cyber Defense

Malicious hackers utilize the World Wide Web to share knowledge. Previous work has demonstrated that information mined from online hacking communities can be used as precursors to cyber-attacks. In a threatening scenario, where security alert systems are facing high false positive rates, understanding the people behind cyber incidents can help reduce the risk of attacks. However, the rapidly evolving nature of those communities leads to limitations still largely unexplored, such as: who are the skilled and influential individuals forming those groups, how they self-organize along the lines of technical expertise, how ideas propagate within them, and which internal patterns can signal imminent cyber offensives? In this dissertation, I have studied four key parts of this complex problem set. Initially, I leverage content, social network, and seniority analysis to mine key-hackers on darkweb forums, identifying skilled and influential individuals who are likely to succeed in their cybercriminal goals. Next, as hackers often use Web platforms to advertise and recruit collaborators, I analyze how social influence contributes to user engagement online. On social media, two time constraints are proposed to extend standard influence measures, which increases their correlation with adoption probability and consequently improves hashtag adoption prediction. On darkweb forums, the prediction of where and when hackers will post a message in the near future is accomplished by analyzing their recurrent interactions with other hackers. After that, I demonstrate how vendors of malware and malicious exploits organically form hidden organizations on darkweb marketplaces, obtaining significant consistency across the vendors’ communities extracted using the similarity of their products in different networks. Finally, I predict imminent cyber-attacks correlating malicious hacking activity on darkweb forums with real-world cyber incidents, evidencing how social indicators are crucial for the performance of the proposed model. This research is a hybrid of social network analysis (SNA), machine learning (ML), evolutionary computation (EC), and temporal logic (TL), presenting expressive contributions to empower cyber defense.