Measuring the Impact of Social Network Interactions

Social links form the backbone of human interactions, both in an offline and online world. Such interactions harbor network diffusion or in simpler words, information spreading in a population of connected individuals. With recent increase in user engagement in social media platforms thus giving rise to networks of large scale, it has become imperative to understand the diffusion mechanisms by considering evolving instances of these network structures. Additionally, I claim that human connections fluctuate over time and attempt to study empirically grounded models of diffusion that embody these variations through evolving network structures. Patterns of interactions that are now stimulated by these fluctuating connections can be harnessed

towards predicting real world events. This dissertation attempts at analyzing

and then modeling such patterns of social network interactions. I propose how such

models could be used in advantage over traditional models of diffusion in various

predictions and simulations of real world events.

The specific three questions rooted in understanding social network interactions that have been addressed in this dissertation are: (1) can interactions captured through evolving diffusion networks indicate and predict the phase changes in a diffusion process? (2) can patterns and models of interactions in hacker forums be used in cyber-attack predictions in the real world? and (3) do varying patterns of social influence impact behavior adoption with different success ratios and could they be used to simulate rumor diffusion?

For the first question, I empirically analyze information cascades of Twitter and Flixster data and conclude that in evolving network structures characterizing diffusion, local network neighborhood surrounding a user is particularly a better indicator of the approaching phases. For the second question, I attempt to build an integrated approach utilizing unconventional signals from the "darkweb" forum discussions for predicting attacks on a target organization. The study finds that filtering out credible users and measuring network features surrounding them can be good indicators of an impending attack. For the third question, I develop an experimental framework in a controlled environment to understand how individuals respond to peer behavior in situations of sequential decision making and develop data-driven agent based models towards simulating rumor diffusion.