Projection of PM2.5, BC, NOx and VOCs from the Future Vehicle Fleet: Impact of Alternative Vehicle Penetration Versus Continual Reductions in Emissions from Traditional Vehicles

Mobile sources emit a number of different gases including nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as well as particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5). As a result, mobile sources are major contributors to urban air pollution and can be the dominant source of some local air pollution problems. In general, mobile sources are divided into two categories: on-road mobile sources and non-road mobile sources. In Maricopa County, the Maricopa County Air Quality Department prepares inventories of all local sources [11], [12]. These inventories report that for Maricopa County, on-road mobile sources emit about 23% of total PM2.5 annually, 58% of the total NOx, and 8% of the total VOCs. To understand how future changes how vehicles might impact local air quality, this work focuses on comparing current inventories of PM2.5, black carbon (BC), NOx, and VOCs to what may be expected emissions in future years based on different scenarios of penetration of hybrid gas-electric vehicles (HEV) and electric vehicles (EV) as well as continued reduction in emissions from conventional internal combustion (IC) vehicles. A range of scenarios has been developed as part of this thesis based on literature reports [6], [8], air quality improvement plan documentation [5], projected vehicle sales and registration [3], [4], as well as using EPA’s Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) [9]. Thus, these created scenarios can be used to evaluate what factors will make the most significant difference in improving local air quality through reduced emissions of PM2.5, BC, NOx and VOCs in the future. Specifically, the impact of a greater fraction of cleaner alternative vehicles such as hybrid-electric and electric vehicles will be compared to the impact of continual reductions in emissions from traditional internal combustion vehicles to reducing urban air pollution emissions in Maricopa County.