Planning for the Energy Transition: Solar Photovoltaics in Arizona

Arizona’s population has been increasing quickly in recent decades and is expected to rise an additional 40%-80% by 2050. In response, the total annual energy demand would increase by an additional 30-60 TWh (terawatt-hours). Development of solar photovoltaic (PV) can sustainably contribute to meet this growing energy demand.

This dissertation focuses on solar PV development at three different spatial planning levels: the state level (state of Arizona); the metropolitan level (Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area); and the city level. At the State level, this thesis answers how much suitable land is available for utility-scale PV development and how future land cover changes may affect the availability of this land. Less than two percent of Arizona's land is considered Excellent for PV development, most of which is private or state trust land. If this suitable land is not set-aside, Arizona would then have to depend on less suitable lands, look for multi-purpose land use options and distributed PV deployments to meet its future energy need.

At the Metropolitan Level, ‘agrivoltaic’ system development is proposed within Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area. The study finds that private agricultural lands in the APS (Arizona Public Service) service territory can generate 3.4 times the current total energy requirements of the MSA. Most of the agricultural land lies within 1 mile of the 230 and 500 kV transmission lines. Analysis shows that about 50% of the agricultural land sales would have made up for the price of the sale within 2 years with agrivoltaic systems.

At the City Level, the relationship between rooftop PV development and demographic variables is analyzed. The relationship of solar PV installation with household income and unemployment rate remain consistent in cities of Phoenix and Tucson while it varies with other demographic parameters. Household income and owner occupancy shows very strong correlations with PV installation in most cities. A consistent spatial pattern of rooftop PV development based on demographic variables is difficult to discern.

Analysis of solar PV development at three different planning levels would help in proposing future policies for both large scale and rooftop solar PV in the state of Arizona.