Water quality and thermal stratification of Cragin Reservoir: current and future impact of forest fires

C.C. Cragin Reservoir’s location in the Coconino National Forest, Arizona makes it prone to wild fire. This study focused on the potential impacts of such a wild fire on the reservoir’s annual thermal stratification cycle impacts and water quality. The annual thermal stratification cycle impacted the reservoir’s water quality by increasing hypolimnion concentrations of magnesium, iron, turbidity, and specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA) values, as well as resulting in the hypolimnion having decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations during stratified months. The scarification process did not affect the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the reservoir or the total/dissolved nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations. Some general water quality trends that emerged were that phosphorous was the limiting nutrient, secchi disk depth and chlorophyll a concentration are inversely related, and no metals were found to be in concentrations that would violate an EPA drinking water maximum contaminant level (MCL). A carbon mass model was developed and parameterized using DOC measurements, and then using historic reservoir storage and weather data, the model simulated DOC concentrations in the reservoir following four hypothetical wild fire events. The model simulated varying initial reservoir storage volumes, initial flush volumes, and flush DOC concentrations, resulting in reservoir DOC concentrations varying from 17.41 mg/L to 8.82 mg/L.