Gubernaturas Cortas: will concurrence change Mexican state elections?

One clause added to the Mexican constitution on February 10, 2014, set off a sea change in the way Mexican elections are conducted. By requiring states to hold at least one local election concurrent with federal contests, the timing of entire races changed, most notably with regard to a number of gubernatorial races, and Mexico embarked on an adventure of creating concurrence. The result is a wave of governors serving terms of two, four or five years instead of the customary six, creating so-called gubernaturas cortas (short governorships). This phenomenon has potential implications for the relationship of state and federal elections and voter turnout in state races. This work analyzes the potential impacts of concurrence by looking at four previous cases of states that have moved to concurrent elections: Yucatán, which moved its gubernatorial elections forward a year to coincide with the presidential elections beginning in 2012; Guerrero and Baja California Sur, which brought their gubernatorial elections two years forward beginning in 2015 to coincide with midterm elections for the Chamber of Deputies; and Michoacán, which pushed its elections two years back and split the elongated term in two, in order to line up with the federal calendar in 2015. It argues that concurrent elections reduce the disparity between gubernatorial and proportional representation deputy performance, particularly when the election is concurrent with the federal midterm, but that variation continues to exist due to strategic voting effects and the attractiveness of individual candidates.