Combining tectonic geomorphology and paleoseismology for understanding of earthquake recurrence

There is a need to understand spatio-temporal variation of slip in active fault zones, both for the advancement of physics-based earthquake simulation and for improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. One challenge in the study of seismic hazards is producing a viable earthquake rupture forecast—a model that specifies the expected frequency and magnitude of events for a fault system. Time-independent earthquake forecasts can produce a mismatch among observed earthquake recurrence intervals, slip-per-event estimates, and implied slip rates. In this thesis, I developed an approach to refine several key geologic inputs to rupture forecasts by focusing on the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain, California. I use topographic forms, sub-surface excavations, and high-precision geochronology to understand the generation and preservation of slip markers at several spatial and temporal scales—from offset in a single earthquake to offset accumulated over thousands of years. This work results in a comparison of slip rate estimates in the Carrizo Plain for the last ~15 kyr that reduces ambiguity and enriches rupture forecast parameters. I analyzed a catalog of slip measurements and surveyed earth scientists with varying amounts of experience to validate high-resolution topography as a supplement to field-based active fault studies. The investigation revealed that (for both field and remote studies) epistemic uncertainties associated with measuring offset landforms can present greater limitations than the aleatoric limitations of the measurement process itself. I pursued the age and origin of small-scale fault-offset fluvial features at Van Matre Ranch, where topographic depressions were previously interpreted as single-event tectonic offsets. I provide new estimates of slip in the most recent earthquake, refine the centennial-scale fault slip rate, and formulate a new understanding of the formation of small-scale fault-offset fluvial channels from small catchments (<7,000 m2). At Phelan Creeks, I confirm the constancy of strain release for the ~15,000 years in the Carrizo Plain by reconstructing a multistage offset landform evolutionary history. I update and explicate a simplified model to interpret the geomorphic response of stream channels to strike-slip faulting. Lastly, I re-excavate and re-interpret paleoseismic catalogs along an intra-continental strike-slip fault (Altyn Tagh, China) to assess consistency of earthquake recurrence.