The unemployment-crime relationship revisited: do neighborhoods matter?

Although much has been done to examine the relationship between unemployment and crime, little consideration has been given to the impact neighborhood-level factors such as informal social control may have on the strength of unemployment as a predictor of crime. The present study seeks to fill this gap by assessing whether the declining crime rates over a period of surging unemployment under the financial crisis are due to unchanged levels of informal social control. To examine these relationships, the present study utilizes data from Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), calls for service to the police, and the United States Census and American Community Survey. These data are longitudinal in nature covering the period 2007-2011 and are all related to Glendale, Arizona. The results indicate that the financial crisis predicts lower rates of property crimes as well as lower rates of calls for service relative to UCR crimes. Additionally, the present study finds that unemployment is a significant predictor of increases in UCR property crime, UCR violent crime, and engagement in each of my measures of informal social control.