A national study on leveraging public infrastructure funds: project performance and financing source analysis for public-private partnerships (PPP) in the U.S. transportation sector

Transportation systems in the U.S. are in a poor state of disrepair. A significant investment is needed to replace or rehabilitate current transportation infrastructure. Currently, transportation investments are lackluster with the recession of 2008 heavily impacting transportation spending, inciting deficits and budgetary cuts at state and federal government levels. As a result, policy makers and public officials are increasingly looking for innovative financing and alternative delivery methods to supplement traditional financing and delivery for transportation projects. Subsequently, the number of public-private partnerships (PPP or P3) has increased substantially over the last two decades.

There is a growing need to quantify the project performance and financial benefits of PPP. This dissertation fills this gap in knowledge by performing a comprehensive quantitative analysis of PPP project performance and financial sources for transportation projects in the U.S. This study’s specific research objectives are:

(1) Develop a solid baseline for comparison, comprised of non-PPP projects;

(2) Quantify PPP project cost and schedule performance; and

(3) Quantify private versus public financing sources of PPP.

A thorough literature review led to the development of a structured data collection process for PPP and comparable non-PPP projects. Financing data was collected and verified for a total of 133 ongoing and completed projects; while performance data was verified for a subset of 81 completed projects. Data analysis included regression analysis, descriptive statistics, inferential statistics and non-parametric statistical tests.

The results provide benchmarks for PPP project performance and financing sources. For the performance results, non-PPP projects have an average cost change of 8.46 percent and an average schedule change of -0.22 percent. PPP projects have an average cost change of 3.04 percent and average schedule change of 1.38 percent. Statistical analysis showed cost change for PPP projects were superior to that of non-PPP; however, schedule change differences were not significant. For the financing results, private financing totaled 44.5 percent while public financing totaled 55.5 percent. This result shows private financing can be used to leverage public financing with close to a one-to-one ratio and that PPP has the potential to double the amount of infrastructure delivered to the public.