Arizona foodshed: estimating capacity to meet fresh fruit and vegetable consumption needs of the Arizona population

Fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption continues to lag far behind US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recommendations. Interventions targeting individuals' dietary behaviors address only a small fraction of dietary influences. Changing the food environment by increasing availability of and excitement for FV through local food production has shown promise as a method for enhancing intake. However, the extent to which local production is sufficient to meet recommended FV intakes, or actual intakes, of specific populations remains largely unconsidered. This study was the first of its kind to evaluate the capacity to support FV intake of Arizona's population with statewide production of FV. We created a model to evaluate what percentage of Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) recommendations, as well as actual consumption, state-level FV production could meet in a given year. Intake and production figures were amended to include estimates of only fresh, non-tropical FV. Production was then estimated by month and season to illustrate fluctuations in availability of FV. Based on our algorithm, Arizona production met 184.5% of aggregate fresh vegetable recommendations, as well as 351.9% of estimated intakes of Arizonans, but met only 29.7% of recommended and 47.8% of estimated intake of fresh, non-tropical fruit. Much of the excess vegetable production can be attributed to the dark-green vegetable sub-group category, which could meet 3204.6% and 3160% of Arizonans' aggregated recommendations and estimated intakes, respectively. Only minimal seasonal variations in the total fruit and total vegetable categories were found, but production of the five vegetable sub-groups varied between the warm and cool seasons by 19-98%. For example, in the starchy vegetable group, cool season (October to March) production met only 3.6% of recommendations, but warm season (April to November) production supplied 196.5% of recommendations. Results indicate that Arizona agricultural production has the capacity to meet a large proportion of the population's FV needs throughout much of the year, while at the same time remaining a major producer of dark-green vegetables for out-of-state markets.