Full metadata
Title
Landscape transformation of Cyprus from 1970 through 2070
Description
This dissertation investigates spatial and temporal changes in land cover and plant species distributions on Cyprus in the past, present and future (1973-2070). Landsat image analysis supports inference of land cover changes following the political division of the island of Cyprus in 1974. Urban growth in Nicosia, Larnaka and Limasol, as well as increased development along the southern coastline, is clearly evident between 1973 and 2011. Forests of the Troodos and Kyrenia Ranges remain relatively stable, with transitions occurring most frequently between agricultural land covers and shrub/herbaceous land covers. Vegetation models were constructed for twenty-two plant species of Cyprus using Maxent to predict potentially suitable areas of occurrence. Modern vegetation models were constructed from presence-only data collected by field surveys conducted between 2008 and 2011. These models provide a baseline for the assessment of potential species distributions under two climate change scenarios (A1b and A2) for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. Climate change in Cyprus is likely to influence habitat availability, particularly for high elevation species as the relatively low elevation mountain ranges and small latitudinal range prevent species from shifting to areas of suitable environmental conditions. The loss of suitable habitat for some species may allow the introduction of non-native plant species or the expansion of generalists currently excluded from these areas. Results from future projections indicate the loss of suitable areas for most species by the year 2030 under both climate regimes and all four endemic species (Cedrus brevifolia, Helianthemum obtusifolium, Pterocephalus multiflorus, and Quercus alnifolia) are predicted to lose all suitable environments as soon as 2030. As striking exceptions Prunus dulcis (almond), Ficus carica (fig), Punica granatum (pomegranate) and Olea europaea (olive), which occur as both wild varieties and orchard cultigens, will expand under both scenarios. Land cover and species distribution maps are evaluated in concert to create a more detailed interpretation of the Cypriot landscape and to discuss the potential implications of climate change for land cover and plant species distributions.
Date Created
2013
Contributors
- Ridder, Elizabeth (Author)
- Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor)
- Myint, Soe W (Committee member)
- Hirt, Paul W (Committee member)
- Arizona State University (Publisher)
Topical Subject
- Geography
- Plant sciences
- Climate Change
- Climate Change
- Cyprus
- land cover
- remote sensing
- Species distribution models
- Vegetation
- Landscape changes--Cyprus.
- Landscape changes
- Landscape changes--Cyprus--Mathematical models.
- Landscape changes
- Ecology--Cyprus--Mathematical models.
- Ecology
- Phytogeography--Maps.
- Vegetation mapping--Cyprus.
- Vegetation mapping
Resource Type
Extent
xx, 257 p. : col. maps
Language
eng
Copyright Statement
In Copyright
Primary Member of
Peer-reviewed
No
Open Access
No
Handle
https://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.18041
Statement of Responsibility
by Elizabeth Ridder
Description Source
Retrieved on Dec. 6, 2013
Level of coding
full
Note
thesis
Partial requirement for: Ph.D., Arizona State University, 2013
bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (p. 215-229)
Field of study: Geography
System Created
- 2013-07-12 06:27:22
System Modified
- 2021-08-30 01:40:47
- 3 years 2 months ago
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