The value of gluten-free attributes in snack foods

Celiac Disease (CD) is now widespread as one in 133 people are currently diagnosed, while there were only one in 150 in 2006. Much of the research concerning CD is still in the early stages, as formal epidemiological studies are relatively recent. CD is aggravated by the consumption of gluten, which is found mainly in wheat, rye, oats, and barley. Not surprisingly, the rising prevalence of CD has created a significant business opportunity for food manufacturers in developing products that are tailored to CD sufferers. While the entire Gluten-Free (GF) industry has been experiencing double digit growth rates, the expansion in available snack foods has outstripped all others. Observation of GF snack food prices suggests that food manufacturers are responding to high retail prices associated with GF foods. However, GF foods are often also advertised with other attributes that generally sell for a premium over conventional foods. Therefore, whether the high retail price for GF snack foods can be attributed specifically to the GF attribute is an empirical question. The objective of this research is to determine whether there is a retail-price premium for GF snack foods and, if there is, to estimate its magnitude. A hedonic pricing model is used to answer this question. Specifically, a hedonic pricing model was applied to a unique dataset of snack food products in order to estimate the marginal value for the GF attribute, while controlling for a number of other important attributes. Results show that the GF attribute is both economically and statistically significant, implying a premium of nearly $1.86 above gluten-containing products. Production costs for smaller manufacturers can be two to three times higher for GF foods relative to non-GF foods, but this still implies an excess premium of over $0.50 (assuming 40% margins). However, high premiums may not last as large retailers are utilizing their influence over suppliers to keep retail margins low. Therefore, the primary implication of the research is that the rapid growth in recent years can easily be explained on economic grounds for large agribusinesses, as this implies a major profit opportunity.