Which Metrics Are Effective in Predicting Future NFL Success of College Football Players?

In this study, I sought to determine which NFL Combine metrics are predictive of future NFL success among the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions, with the hope of providing meaningful information that can be utilized by NFL executives when making decisions about draft selections. I gathered samples spanning across the years 2010-2015 of all three of the aforementioned position groups. Among these samples, I used certain criteria which split them up within their position groups. The two groups of players were identified as: those who had successful careers and those who had unsuccessful careers. Given this information, I performed t-tests and ANOVA between successful and unsuccessful groups with the goal of identifying which combine metrics are predictive of future NFL success, and which are not. For quarterbacks, the 40-yard dash, broad jump, three-cone, and 10-yard shuttle all appear to be predictive of success. Notably, quarterback height does not appear to be predictive, despite the popular belief that a quarterback should be tall if they are to succeed. For running backs, player weight, 40-yard dash, and three-cone all appear to be predictive of success, with the broad jump and 10-yard shuttle seemingly predicting success as well, albeit to a lesser degree of strength. For wide receivers, all metrics do not appear to be predictive of success, with the exception of the 40-yard dash, which only appears to be slightly predictive. While there are likely many other factors that contribute to a player’s success than tests administered at the NFL combine, NFL general managers can look to these results when making draft selections.