Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Barrett Freshmen 2007-2012: Source Area Analysis and Poisson Regression

In order to help enhance admissions and recruiting efforts, this longitudinal study analyzed the geographic distribution of matriculated Barrett freshmen from 2007-2012 and sought to explore hot and cold spot locations of Barrett enrollment numbers using geographic information science (GIS) methods. One strategy involved   weighted mean center and standard distance analyses for each year of data for non-resident (out-of-state) freshmen home zip codes. Another strategy, a Poisson regression model, revealed recruitment "hot and cold spots" across the U.S. to project the expected counts of Barrett freshmen by zip code. This projected count served as a comparison for the actual admissions data, where zip codes with over and under predictions represented cold and hot spots, respectively. The mean center analysis revealed a westward shift from 2007 to 2012 with similar distance dispersions. The Poisson model projected zero-student zip codes with 99.2% accuracy and non-zero zip codes with 73.8% accuracy. Norwalk, CA (90650) and New York, NY (10021) represented the top out-of-state cold spot zip codes, while the model indicated that Chandler, AZ (85249) and Queen Creek, AZ (85242) had the most in-state potential for recruitment. The model indicated that more students have come from Albuquerque, NM (87122) and Aurora, CO (80015) than anticipated, while Phoenix, AZ (85048) and Tempe, AZ (85284) represent in-state locations with higher correlations between the variables included, especially regarding distance decay, and the than expected numbers of freshmen. The regression also indicated the existence of strong likelihood of attracting Barrett students.