Origins, Economics, and Significance of Trade Imbalances in a Modern, Globalized World

Government and news outlets everywhere preach that trade is hurting their domestic economy. However, trade is supposed to be beneficial to all theoretically. So where is the disconnect? This thesis was created to gather understanding about trade in the real world and how it can be accurately portrayed. First, I looked at the basics of bilateral and multilateral trade to show that trade imbalances will always exist and show that this idea that countries have that trade surpluses are best is incorrect. Second, I compared the accuracies of the two measures of trade that exist: balance of trade and current account measures. I conducted this research to show that the common measure of trade (balance of trade) is inaccurate and the stronger, more accurate measure is the current account measure. After coming to this conclusion, I began to see what factors in countries affect their current account balance. I looked at five categories: demographics, investment climate, level of economic development, existence of a technology boom, and current trade policy, and looked at theoretical explanations for how each one affects the current account. In the end, I was able to create a theory based on these five factors to predict the current account balance in any country and describe its trade health. In conclusion, I found that the issue of trade misconceptions lies in which measurement someone uses, and this simple misunderstanding can lead to things such as trade wars and global economic degradation.