Effects of Water Right Heterogeneity on Price in California Water Markets

Research on California water markets has historically made two inaccurate assumptions regarding water rights: that water is a one-dimensional commodity, and that every water rights holder is in the market to sell. In reality, water is a bundled good that comprises varying attributes, and the decision to become a seller often has more to do with politics than price. This thesis analyzes the heterogeneous dimensions of a water right to explain the evolution of supply, demand, and price in California water markets. A dataset of 712 short-term surface water transfers in California from the period of 1990 through 2016 is analyzed to explain market trends and model the price of water. The data comes from a proprietary dataset of water transfers provided by WestWater Research, LLC (WestWater). Transfer data is distinguished based on variables such as buyer and seller experience, perennial crop plantings, seasonal timing of sale, buyer and seller region, water-year type, and end use. A variety of figures present summary statistics of the data. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used to identify variables that are statistically significant in estimating the unit price of water in dollars per acre-foot ($/AF). The regression shows that State Water Bank (SWB) purchases, Environmental Water Account (EWA) purchases, environmental end use, North of Delta (NOD) seller location, the San Joaquin Valley Water-Year Index (San Joaquin Index), total perennial crop acreage, and purchases made by South Coast buyers were statistically significant at the 95% or 99% confidence interval. These variables were included in the final econometric model to estimate price.