Full metadata
Title
Identifying Synoptic Patterns Associated with Deadly Tornadoes in the Mid-South
Description
The Mid-South region, which consists of west Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, north Mississippi, and the Missouri bootheel, is one of many areas in the United States that frequently faces the threats to life and property posed by tornadoes. Forecasting the occurrence of tornadoes is arguably the biggest challenge for meteorologists responsible for the region. This study analyzes synoptic scale weather conditions associated with tornadoes in the Mid-South with the hopes of identifying patterns conducive to tornadic activity and that these patterns can be used to better forecast potential tornado days. It is hypothesized that patterns associated with tornado formation can be identified and that certain patterns may be more favorable to stronger tornadoes or tornado outbreaks than others.
To find these patterns, I analyzed surface and upper air features were analyzed on days where multiple tornadoes occurred from January 1999 to March 2018. Specifically, the surface low pressure, 500hPa trough, and 850 and 300hPa jets were analyzed. Using a floating nine point grid system, I identified the location of the Mid-South in relation to the feature. In the end, eight patterns of similar grid locations were identified to be related to tornado days. For example, the Mid-South was frequently to the southeast of the surface low. However, no correlation appears to exist between the patterns and the number or intensity of tornadoes. It is recommended that in the future these patterns be tested as a forecast method and/or compared to non-tornado days to verify that they are valid tools.
To find these patterns, I analyzed surface and upper air features were analyzed on days where multiple tornadoes occurred from January 1999 to March 2018. Specifically, the surface low pressure, 500hPa trough, and 850 and 300hPa jets were analyzed. Using a floating nine point grid system, I identified the location of the Mid-South in relation to the feature. In the end, eight patterns of similar grid locations were identified to be related to tornado days. For example, the Mid-South was frequently to the southeast of the surface low. However, no correlation appears to exist between the patterns and the number or intensity of tornadoes. It is recommended that in the future these patterns be tested as a forecast method and/or compared to non-tornado days to verify that they are valid tools.
Date Created
2019-05
Contributors
- Wanless, Anna Cecilia (Author)
- Cerveny, Randall (Thesis director)
- Svoma, Bohumil (Committee member)
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor, Contributor, Contributor)
- Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Topical Subject
Resource Type
Extent
39 pages
Language
eng
Copyright Statement
In Copyright
Primary Member of
Series
Academic Year 2018-2019
Handle
https://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.52055
Level of coding
minimal
Cataloging Standards
System Created
- 2019-03-16 12:00:03
System Modified
- 2021-08-11 04:09:57
- 3 years 3 months ago
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