The Past, Present, and Future of Spotify: A Financial Analysis

The purpose of this thesis was to create a valuation of Spotify (Ticker: SPOT) and estimate a share price for the company. Spotify is one of the largest music streaming services in the world, currently operating in 79 markets globally with a subscriber base of over 100 million people. Spotify initially offered April 3, 2018 at $132 per share and sees a huge amount of financial assets on their balance sheet due to continued investment. As a newly established high-growth company, Spotify has enjoyed a 30% average revenue growth year over year from 2014 to 2019. Although Spotify’s reach is quite large, the company is dwarfed by competitors such as Apple, Google, and Amazon in the extremely competitive music streaming industry. Within this paper, we first analyze the competitive landscape that makes up the music streaming industry. Once a baseline understanding of the music streaming industry has been reached, we turn the focus more directly onto Spotify through examining Spotify’s position within the market as well as the company’s current strategic goals and objectives. We then forecasted Spotify’s financial statements forward and created a residual income model (RIM) based on Spotify’s financial statements. As was previously stated, the purpose of this model was to arrive at a share price for Spotify that we believe accurately reflects its value and compare that with its current market trading price. After successfully accomplishing this goal, we conducted a comprehensive final analysis and offered Spotify recommendations based on the model as well and its output.