Climate change may constrain future electricity generation capacity by increasing the incidence of extreme heat and drought events. We estimate reductions to generating capacity in the Western United States based on long-term changes in streamflow, air temperature, water temperature, humidity and air density. We simulate these key parameters over the next half-century by joining downscaled climate forcings with a hydrologic modelling system. For vulnerable power stations (46% of existing capacity), climate change may reduce average summertime generating capacity by 1.1–3.0%, with reductions of up to 7.2–8.8% under a ten-year drought. At present, power providers do not account for climate impacts in their development plans, meaning that they could be overestimating their ability to meet future electricity needs.
Details
- Impacts of Climate Change on Electric Power Supply in the Western United States
- Bartos, Matthew (Author)
- Chester, Mikhail Vin (Author)
- Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering (Contributor)
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Digital object identifier: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2648
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Identifier TypeInternational standard serial numberIdentifier Value1758-678X
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Identifier TypeInternational standard serial numberIdentifier Value1758-6798
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The final version of this article, as published in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, can be viewed online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2648
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Bartos, Matthew D., & Chester, Mikhail V. (2015). Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 5(8), 748-752. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2648